Predicting COVID-19 Unreported Case From Space

Abstract

This paper investigates how social behavior such as people responding to news and economic performance will influence on human mobility and confirming positive case of COVID-19. I employed news policy will reduce human mobility. Whereas, economic performance of income group proxied through night lights data. The mobility data retrieved from Waze Car Congestion Report according to hourly basis that located with spatial GPS. The confirmed case of COVID-19 were retrieved at provincial level These datasets are estimated with econometric epidemiologist model. The results found that without policy the spreading case of COVID-19 will increase about 8 million cases, whereas with policy the unreported COVID-19 confirmed case about 1.9 – 2 times of government publicly report. We conclude that literacy and awareness of COVID-19 is necessary to be important agenda rather than economy. The results indicates that Indonesian prefer to engaging with economic rather than health policy.