Escapology, or How to Escape Malthusian Traps

J. Friedrichs
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Abstract

This chapter discusses ways of escaping Malthusian traps, showing how a framework taking the classical problem of overpopulation as its heuristic starting point can provide a key to contemporary problems and ways of dealing with them. Based on a concise model of the overpopulation trap, I discuss a variety of escape routes starting with the solutions and non-solutions suggested by Malthus (moral restraint, vice, and misery); followed by strategies of shifting the problem to subalterns and/or outsiders; and culminating in cornucopian solutions like exponential industrial growth and technical progress. Subsequently, I move to the neo-Malthusian challenges of the contemporary era, from climate change to energy scarcity. After a brief outline of the traps threatening the foundations of contemporary industrial civilization, I survey conceivable ways of dealing with them. In doing so, I revisit the escape routes discussed previously and ponder which of them, if any, may be available, eventually in a modified form, to deal with looming scenarios of neo-Malthusian crisis.
《如何逃离马尔萨斯陷阱
本章讨论了摆脱马尔萨斯陷阱的方法,展示了一个以人口过剩的经典问题为启发式起点的框架如何为当代问题和处理这些问题的方法提供关键。基于人口过剩陷阱的简明模型,我从马尔萨斯提出的解决方案和非解决方案(道德约束、罪恶和痛苦)开始讨论各种逃脱途径;其次是将问题转移给下级和/或外人的策略;并最终形成丰富的解决方案,如指数级工业增长和技术进步。随后,我转向当代新马尔萨斯主义的挑战,从气候变化到能源短缺。在简要概述了威胁当代工业文明基础的陷阱之后,我考察了应对这些陷阱的可行方法。在此过程中,我重新审视了之前讨论过的逃生路线,并思考其中的哪一条(如果有的话)可能最终以一种改进的形式可用,以应对迫在眉睫的新马尔萨斯危机。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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