A Study of the Method for Estimating Demand in Response to Change in Interregional Rail Intervals Using Game Theory

Abstract

The travel time experienced by passengers using public transportation consists of in-vehicle time and out-of-vehicle time. The out-of-vehicle time consists of the access time to approach the station, the waiting time at the station, and the transfer time. In public transportation demand analysis, it is a general method to apply 1/2 of the dispatch interval to the waiting time of passengers in general public transportation demand analysis, assuming that the behavior of users approaching the station arrives at random and follows a uniform distribution. However, in a number of studies at domestic and abroad, when a fixed schedule such as an interregional rail is known in advance, users adjust the initial departure time according to service availability. However, there was a limit in analyzing the demand change due to the increase in the supply of interregional rail services without network changes such as increased trains and double-track. Therefore, this study analyzed the effect of the reduction in waiting time according to the increase in the number of high-speed trains on demand forecasting through Stackelberg game theory in order to analyze the effect of the decrease in the waiting time of users on the increase in demand.