Trends in the World Economic Development and the Prospects for Post-Crisis Recovery

Abstract

In Q3 2020, the pace of economic recovery in many countries turned out to be higher than expected. However, this growth only in part offset the deep recession that had been observed in Q2. In the majority of countries, output is well below its pre-crisis levels. The “second wave” of the epidemic has increased uncertainty about the prospects for further economic recovery. According to the latest estimates, the drop in global GDP expected for this year has been downwardly revised, from 5.0% to 4.5%, with an increase of 5% in 2021. The new containment measures introduced this autumn are fraught with the risks of a second significant decline in business activity and a surge in unemployment, and as a result, the forecasts for 2021 may get worse.