ОЦЕНКА СЕЙСМИЧЕСКОГО РИСКА НА ТЕРРИТОРИИ СТАВРОПОЛЬСКОГО КРАЯ

Abstract

Aim. This study determines the industrial specificity of the economy of peripheral areas in the Stavropol Territory and identifies the transformational “drift” of specialization of its constituent municipal and urban districts. The study also assesses the current state of industrial economic sectors in peripheral areas to make logical conclusions and further substantiate proposals for the development of a particular territorial socioeconomic development policy. Tasks. The authors compile relevant analytical information about the current state of the industrial sectors in the region and peripheral areas and identify territories with agricultural, industrial, and mixed economic specialization. Methods. This study uses the technical provisions of new trade theory and new economic geography as well as general scientific methods of cognition: analysis, synthesis, dialectics of the systemic, structural and sophisticated approaches, uniformity and comparability of indicators, and parameters at different chronological stages of research. In the substantiation of theoretical provisions, conclusions, and recommendations, the authors use different tools and methods based on the requirements of the evolutionary and transition economy: economic and statistical methods, systems and comparative analysis, logical semantics, classification and reduction of the initial multivariable data space, and graphic representation of the results and source data. Results. A set of indicators was derived for the analysis of the industrial specialization of peripheral areas as a structural element of the regional and economic system. The conducted analysis makes it possible to actualize analytical concepts of the socioeconomic state of a traditional agricultural-industrial region with additional characteristics of industrial specialization of specific areas. Therefore, it is essential for the development of the regions’ socioeconomic policy. The proposed classification of the peripheral areas by industrial specialization makes it possible to develop adaptive tools for stimulating the economy. Conclusion. The developed methodology for detecting fluctuations and transformations in specialized economies of the Stavropol Territory are scientifically derived allowing for systems’ diagnostics of industrial “drifts.” It expands the concept of strengths and weaknesses of the socioeconomic state of the peripheral regions and identifies the negative and positive trends. Further studies based on the obtained analytical results may improve the adequacy and precision of the developed incentives. It will support measures for the depressive, underdeveloped, and lagging marginal areas to maintain the region’s territorial integrity.