A New Estimate of the Hawaiian Population for 1778, the Year of First European Contact

Abstract

A high level of uncertainty surrounds the size of the Hawaiian population at the time of first European contact in 1778. Estimates range from 200,000 to 1,000,000. While some estimates have more of an empirical base than others, none of them takes advantage of the high level of momentum found in demographic processes, something that is done in this paper using “backcasting,” a demographic forecasting method run in reverse from known data. Using a commonly used technique for this purpose, the 1910 count of Native Hawaiians by age in Hawaiʻi is taken back to 1770 in decennial cycles. Interpolating between the 1780 and 1770 estimates yields an estimated 683,200 Hawaiians in 1778. Another finding is that the population reaches stability (a constant relative age structure over time) by 1820.