Piecewise linear model of coronavirus distribution in ukraine and in the world

Abstract

The author proposes a piecewise linear model of the spread of coronavirus 2019 based on the analysis of statistical studies obtained by the World Health Organization (WHO), the Ministry of Health (MH) of Ukraine and the Center for Mathematical Modeling of the NAS of Ukraine within seven months from appearance of the virus. Based on this model and forecasting the rate of growth of the epidemiological disease at COVID-2019, estimates of the time of disappearance of virus outbreak and a continuous decrease in the number of diseases of persons in need of hospitalization are made. The obtained results have both theoretical and applied signi fi cance, as they allow, at least, to plan and lead an active lifestyle, save material and human resources, e ff ectively and adequately respond to the manifestations of viral diseases until their complete disappearance. It should be noted that the proposed model is a model of the fi rst approximation and needs to be clari ed, as it not take into the in fl uence of a number of factors on the process of virus spread.