Rise of the modern electric vehicle

Abstract

There is a new quest underway to replace the 125-year-old petroleum-based transport system with vehicles powered by electricity. Excluding electric bikes, scooters and neighborhood carts, the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) was virtually nonexistent as recently as 2009. Ten years later, 7.2 million PEVs were operating on roads and highways around the world. Sales of new PEVs are growing so rapidly that the International Energy Agency forecasts approximately 130 million PEVs on the road worldwide in the year 2030.1 The global PEV market share of new vehicles in 2019 was only 2.5%, but virtually all global automakers are planning to introduce new PEV models by 2025.2 Public announcements suggest that at least 100 new PEV models will be available by 2023.3 Thirteen market studies showed enormous variation in 2040 PEV forecasts ranging from a low of 8% of new vehicle sales to a high of 75%, but all forecasts show substantial growth.4 The trend to PEVs is international in scope but the transition is moving at different speeds in various regions of the world. The United States, led by California, was fast out of the gate from 2008 to 2015 but China and Europe are now moving faster to electrify than the United States. The unexpected national leader in PEV deployment is oil-rich Norway, where the PEV share of new vehicle sales reached 56% in 2019.5 Why has there been a resurgence of interest in PEVs, and why is it happening now? Why are some jurisdictions of the world moving faster than others? This book seeks to answer these questions. A secondary objective of the book is to supply a unified introduction to the modern plug-in vehicle, covering basic issues in engineering, business, economics, environmental science, politics and public policy. My goal is not to make a case for or against the transition to PEVs but to shed light on how and why commercial interest in modern electric cars is emerging. We may be standing on the precipice of a revolution in propulsion not seen since the horse and buggy. It is crucial to understand why it is happening, how it will impact the economy, society, consumers, international trade, and the environment, how quickly the transition might occur, and what factors should be monitored in the years ahead to inform predictions about the pace of the transition.