Impact of Meteorological Parameters on Short-Term Forecasting: Application to the Dakar Site

Abstract

This paper aims at evaluating impact of the temperature and humidity on the short-term of solar potential forecast. Therefore, discrete Kalman filter model based upon AR process and EM algorithm is applied in Dakar for a lead-time of 20 minutes. The model input parameters at time noticed by t, of the model at a time t, are air temperature, relative humidity and global solar radiation. Expectation at (t +T), is the global solar radiation. Input data are measured at the Polytechnic School of Dakar and cover one year. Results are verified using performance criteria such criteria such the nRMSE, nMAE, nMBE. Criteria values are of about 4.9% for the nRMSE, of 0.272% for the nMAE and about of-0.7% for the nMBE. Without considering the impact of temperature and relative humidity criteria calculation lead to following values : nRMSE of 4.8%, nMAE of 0.271% and nMBE of 0.4%. The analysis of the results showed that studied meteorological parameters have very soft influence (difference of nRMSE = 1% and nMAE = 0.001%) on the performances of the model and that the model without impact is perceived as the most efficient on the site.