Chinese Foreign Real Estate Investment and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections

Steven Liao
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Few economic issues affect people as personally and universally as housing. Yet despite the increasing globalization of housing markets, little is known about its political implications. This study investigates whether rising Chinese investments in U.S. homes influenced local voting in recent U.S. presidential elections. Building on theories of self-interests, sociotropic politics, and nativism, I develop hypotheses on the electoral effects of foreign real estate investment through greater home equity, improved local economies, and increased immigration. Using a series of difference-in-differences designs that combine a unique exogenous shock to Chinese capital outflows in 2013 with original measures of local attractiveness to Chinese investments, I find that greater exposure helped local home prices recover but reduced 2012–2016 presidential vote for the incumbent Democratic Party. Larger white populations exacerbated this negative effect while stronger local economies attenuated it. Contradicting predictions of self-interests, the negative effect exacerbated in areas with high shares of homeowners. Together, the results suggest competing effects driven more by nativist and sociotropic concerns.
中国海外房地产投资与美国总统选举投票
很少有经济问题像住房问题那样对人们个人和普遍产生影响。然而,尽管房地产市场日益全球化,但人们对其政治含义却知之甚少。这项研究调查了中国对美国住宅投资的增加是否影响了最近美国总统选举中的当地投票。在自我利益、社会取向政治和本土主义理论的基础上,我对外国房地产投资通过提高房屋净值、改善当地经济和增加移民对选举的影响提出了假设。通过一系列差异中的差异设计,将2013年中国资本外流的独特外源冲击与当地对中国投资吸引力的原始衡量相结合,我发现,更大的风险敞口帮助当地房价复苏,但减少了现任民主党2012-2016年总统大选的选票。白人人口的增加加剧了这种负面影响,而更强大的地方经济则减弱了这种影响。与自我利益的预测相矛盾的是,在拥有大量房屋的地区,负面影响加剧了。综上所述,研究结果表明,本土主义和社会取向问题更多地推动了相互竞争的影响。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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