Financial Turbulence and Crisis

Caner Bakir, Sinan Akgunay, M. Çoban
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Abstract

Why do financial turbulence and crises occur? What are different types of financial crises? Why do different countries experience financial crises, while some are more resilient? These are intriguing questions that relate to financial turbulence and crisis. The financial system is inherently susceptible to turbulence and crises: The world has witnessed several rounds of financial turbulence since the early 2000s. The 2008 global financial crisis and the worldwide financial turbulence that took place following the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic are examples. Periods of financial turbulence relate to heightened uncertainty and volatility in financial markets, and some of those periods can trigger financial crises. It is puzzling that although some countries can weather financial turbulence without falling into a financial crisis, others do not. This was observed during the global financial crisis. For example, financial turbulence triggered a financial crisis in some of the liberal market economies such as the United States and the United Kingdom. In contrast, Australia and Canada remained relatively resistant to financial turbulence. The existing literature tends to justify how and why a period of financial turbulence resulted in a financial crisis by looking at individual structural-, institutional-, or actor-level factors. In addition to the independent (separate) effects of these three principal explanatory factors, there is a need for detecting and analyzing their individual; interactive; and/or cumulative structural, institutional, and agential explanatory factors at work. Thus, it is crucial to explore some of the interrelated dynamics informing agency behavior which generate socioeconomic outcomes. Specifically, we call for a rigorous and refined analysis of how and why complementarities and enabling conditions that stem from interactions between structural and institutional factors influence actors’ agency and socioeconomic/political outcomes.
金融动荡与危机
金融动荡和危机为何会发生?金融危机有哪些不同类型?为什么不同的国家经历金融危机,而有些国家更有弹性?这些都是与金融动荡和危机相关的有趣问题。金融体系天生就容易受到动荡和危机的影响:自本世纪初以来,世界经历了几轮金融动荡。2008年全球金融危机和新冠肺炎疫情后发生的全球金融动荡就是例证。金融动荡时期与金融市场的不确定性和波动性加剧有关,其中一些时期可能引发金融危机。令人费解的是,虽然一些国家能够经受住金融动荡而不陷入金融危机,但另一些国家却不能。这是在全球金融危机期间观察到的。例如,美国和英国等一些自由市场经济国家的金融动荡引发了金融危机。相比之下,澳大利亚和加拿大对金融动荡的抵抗力相对较强。现有文献倾向于通过观察个体结构、制度或行为层面的因素来证明金融动荡时期如何以及为什么会导致金融危机。除了这三个主要解释因素的独立(单独)影响外,还需要对它们的个体进行检测和分析;互动;和/或在起作用的累积结构、制度和代理解释因素。因此,探索产生社会经济结果的代理行为的一些相互关联的动态是至关重要的。具体而言,我们呼吁对结构和体制因素之间的相互作用产生的互补性和有利条件如何以及为何影响行为者的能动性和社会经济/政治结果进行严格和细致的分析。
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