Deriving heuristics from political speeches for understanding statistics about society

Abstract

Many governments adopt the mantra of ‘evidence informed policy’ and use ‘evidence’ to justify political decisions. Active citizenship requires an understanding of appropriate and inappropriate uses of statistics about society. A number of groups are dedicated to checking the claims made by politicians, and produce commentaries based on careful analyses of data sources and interpretations. Here, we use the commentaries of one such group (Full Fact) as a source of insight into some misleading statements made by politicians. These lead directly to heuristics that can be employed when faced with evidence claims. Further, the examples provide a basis for a framework for conceptualizing ‘statistical literacy’ in a data rich world.