Labor Market Effects of Open Borders: Lessons from EU Enlargement

I. Kuosmanen, Jaakko Meriläinen
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

We exploit the expansion of the European Union as a natural experiment to study the labor market consequences of open borders. The eastern enlargement of the EU differentially exposed workers in different regions and occupations in Finland to foreign workforce. Using a triple-differences strategy and detailed individual-level administrative data, we provide robust evidence that the entry of new EU countries decreased the annual earnings of vulnerable workers persistently relative to less vulnerable workers in the construction sector. This decrease was about 1,700 euros per year, on average, which corresponds roughly to a month's salary. The vulnerable workers were not able to close the wage gap even ten years after the EU enlargement. Most estimates suggest that the workforce nearly doubled in size after the EU enlargement, which would imply an elasticity close to zero. We also find a small increase in unemployment. The effect on earnings is predominantly driven by workers below 30 years old, who became more likely to switch to other sectors of employment or establishments of work, and workers over 50 years old, who became more likely to retire.
开放边界对劳动力市场的影响:来自欧盟扩大的经验教训
我们利用欧盟的扩张作为一个自然实验来研究开放边界对劳动力市场的影响。欧盟东扩使芬兰不同地区和职业的工人不同程度地暴露于外国劳动力。使用三重差异策略和详细的个人层面的行政数据,我们提供了强有力的证据,证明新欧盟国家的进入相对于建筑行业中不那么脆弱的工人,持续降低了弱势工人的年收入。平均每年减少约1,700欧元,大致相当于一个月的工资。即使在欧盟扩大十年后,弱势工人也无法缩小工资差距。大多数估计表明,在欧盟扩大后,劳动力规模几乎翻了一番,这意味着弹性接近于零。我们还发现失业率有小幅上升。对收入的影响主要是由30岁以下的工人和50岁以上的工人推动的,他们更有可能转到其他就业部门或工作机构,而50岁以上的工人更有可能退休。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
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