Macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of the impact of energy wars and geopolitics on currency rates and oil prices

Abstract

Subject/topic. In modern conditions, it is advisable to consider geopolitics through the prism of hybrid wars, when the theaters of war have moved from the ocean and land to the world financial and commodity markets. There is a close correlation be-tween changes in exchange rates and the price of oil on the results of energy wars. The aim of the article is to study the theoretical and empirical aspects of the impact of energy wars and geopolitics on the formation of oil prices and the dynamics of currency rates in modern conditions, as well as determining their vector of influence on the development of the world economy as a whole. Methodology of the article. To complete this article, a comparative and economic-statistical analysis was used. Results. The article shows that in the context of globalization of the world economy, there is a deep correlation between changes in currency rates and the price of oil and the consequences of energy wars, on the one hand, and on the other, currency rates and oil prices are the tools for geopolitics in achieving their goals. In addition, there is a fairly strong direct link between oil prices and exchange rates. Factors affecting the formation of the currency exchange and oil markets are sometimes artificial in nature by influencing appropriate macroeconomic conditions, for example, changing the balance of supply and demand. Findings. A macroeconomic analysis of the nature of the relationship between the dynamics of oil prices and currency fluctuations reveals the geopolitical interests of the main players in the oil market, indicating its redistribution. The stage of ousting Russia from the Chinese oil market with dumping prices began, not only with supplies from Saudi Arabia, but also with the active participation of the former partners of Iran and Venezuela, which themselves were under sanctions. The budget of these countries directly depends on oil imports. It is the force majeure circumstances that force them to abandon further partnership with Russia and become independent players in the Chinese hydrocarbon market.