Study on the Forecast of Total Health Expenditure in Henan Province Based on Grey System GM(1,1) Model

Abstract

Objective: To analyze and predict the future total health expenditure and its financing structure in Henan Province, so as to provide scientific basis and theoretical support for relevant government departments, and to explore the development of medical and health undertakings. Methods: Ac-cording to the data of total health expenditure in Henan Province from 2012 to 2019, a GM(1,1) prediction model was constructed based on the grey system theory, and the trend, financing status and proportion of total health expenditure in GDP were analyzed. Results: The total health expenditure and its proportion in GDP in Henan Province increased year by year, among which the proportion of government and individual health expenditure in total health expenditure gradually decreased, and the proportion of social health expenditure in total health expenditure continued to show an upward trend. Conclusion: It provides a scientific basis for the optimization of regional health cost management, financing level and structure, and promotes the development of public health in Henan Province.