A Novel Model for Backcasting the Environmental Sustainability in Iran's Electricity Supply Mix

Abstract

Electricity supply planning is a tangled problem, especially in the era of day-to-day development in power generation technologies that each of which has its own specific technical and economic characteristics. Taking environmental aspects into consideration makes the issue even more complicated. Therefore, developing new efficient approaches to deal with this problem is of crucial importance. This paper proposes a model for backcasting the environmental sustainability in the power supply mix. The suggested model combines a genetic algorithm, a linear programming model, and an AHP-TOPSIS method. The model is used to analyze Iran's power sector. The results show that solar PV and wind turbine are two promising technologies for Iran's long-term power demand. The results also indicate that the environmentally sustainable plan would give rise to a reduction in per unit CO2and SO2emissions, as well as water usage, but it would cause an increase in land requirement. The findings reveal that to keep CO2emissions decreasing trend in the long-run, it is essential to expand the potential capacity of renew ables.