Offline crime bounces back to pre-COVID levels, cyber stays high: interrupted time-series analysis in Northern Ireland.

IF 3.1 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY
David Buil-Gil, Yongyu Zeng, Steven Kemp
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

Much research has shown that the first lockdowns imposed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic were associated with changes in routine activities and, therefore, changes in crime. While several types of violent and property crime decreased immediately after the first lockdown, online crime rates increased. Nevertheless, little research has explored the relationship between multiple lockdowns and crime in the mid-term. Furthermore, few studies have analysed potentially contrasting trends in offline and online crimes using the same dataset. To fill these gaps in research, the present article employs interrupted time-series analysis to examine the effects on offline and online crime of the three lockdown orders implemented in Northern Ireland. We analyse crime data recorded by the police between April 2015 and May 2021. Results show that many types of traditional offline crime decreased after the lockdowns but that they subsequently bounced back to pre-pandemic levels. In contrast, results appear to indicate that cyber-enabled fraud and cyber-dependent crime rose alongside lockdown-induced changes in online habits and remained higher than before COVID-19. It is likely that the pandemic accelerated the long-term upward trend in online crime. We also find that lockdowns with stay-at-home orders had a clearer impact on crime than those without. Our results contribute to understanding how responses to pandemics can influence crime trends in the mid-term as well as helping identify the potential long-term effects of the pandemic on crime, which can strengthen the evidence base for policy and practice.

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线下犯罪反弹至疫情前水平,网络犯罪居高不下:北爱尔兰中断的时间序列分析
大量研究表明,为应对COVID-19大流行而实施的第一次封锁与日常活动的变化有关,因此也与犯罪的变化有关。虽然在第一次封锁后,几种类型的暴力和财产犯罪立即下降,但网络犯罪率上升。然而,很少有研究探讨多次封锁与中期犯罪之间的关系。此外,很少有研究使用相同的数据集分析离线和在线犯罪的潜在对比趋势。为了填补这些研究空白,本文采用中断时间序列分析来检查北爱尔兰实施的三项封锁令对离线和在线犯罪的影响。我们分析了2015年4月至2021年5月期间警方记录的犯罪数据。结果显示,许多类型的传统线下犯罪在封锁后有所下降,但随后又反弹至大流行前的水平。相比之下,结果似乎表明,网络欺诈和网络依赖犯罪随着封锁导致的上网习惯变化而上升,并且仍然高于COVID-19之前。这次大流行很可能加速了网络犯罪的长期上升趋势。我们还发现,有居家令的封锁对犯罪的影响比没有居家令的封锁更明显。我们的研究结果有助于了解对大流行病的应对如何影响中期犯罪趋势,并有助于确定大流行病对犯罪的潜在长期影响,从而加强政策和实践的证据基础。
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来源期刊
Crime Science
Crime Science Social Sciences-Cultural Studies
CiteScore
11.90
自引率
8.20%
发文量
12
审稿时长
13 weeks
期刊介绍: Crime Science is an international, interdisciplinary, peer-reviewed journal with an applied focus. The journal''s main focus is on research articles and systematic reviews that reflect the growing cooperation among a variety of fields, including environmental criminology, economics, engineering, geography, public health, psychology, statistics and urban planning, on improving the detection, prevention and understanding of crime and disorder. Crime Science will publish theoretical articles that are relevant to the field, for example, approaches that integrate theories from different disciplines. The goal of the journal is to broaden the scientific base for the understanding, analysis and control of crime and disorder. It is aimed at researchers, practitioners and policy-makers with an interest in crime reduction. It will also publish short contributions on timely topics including crime patterns, technological advances for detection and prevention, and analytical techniques, and on the crime reduction applications of research from a wide range of fields. Crime Science publishes research articles, systematic reviews, short contributions and theoretical articles. While Crime Science uses the APA reference style, the journal welcomes submissions using alternative reference styles on a case-by-case basis.
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