Machine learning predicting mortality in sarcoidosis patients admitted for acute heart failure

Abstract

Background

Sarcoidosis with cardiac involvement, although rare, has a worse prognosis than sarcoidosis involving other organ systems.

Objective

We used a large dataset to train machine learning models to predict in-hospital mortality among sarcoidosis patients admitted with heart failure (HF).

Method

Utilizing the National Inpatient Sample, we identified 4659 patients hospitalized with a primary diagnosis of HF. In this cohort, we identified patients with a secondary diagnosis of sarcoidosis using International Statistical Classification of Disease, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes. Patients were separated into a training group and a testing group in a 7:3 ratio. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression was used to select variables to prevent model overfitting or underfitting. For machine learning models, logistic regression, random forest, and XGBoosting were applied in the training group. Parameters in each of the models were tuned using the GridSearchCV function. After training, all models were further validated in the testing group. Models were then evaluated using the area under curve (AUC) score, sensitivity, and specificity.

Results

A total of 2.3% of sarcoidosis patients died in HF admission. Our machine learning model analysis found the RF model to have the highest AUC score and sensitivity. Feature analysis found that comorbid arrhythmias and fluid electrolyte disorders were the strongest factors in predicting in-hospital mortality.

Conclusion

Machine learning methods can be useful in identifying predictors of in-hospital mortality in a given dataset.