Common predictors of adverse outcomes in adult deceased donor kidney transplant recipients with varying sensitization.

Objective: Our objective was to identify consistent predictors of multiple adverse outcomes of adult deceased donor (DD) kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) of varying sensitization status.

Methods: We used the national transplant database in studying 62037 adult DD-KTRs between Dec. 2007 and Jun. 2015 stratified into sensitization cohorts based on calculated panel reactive antibody (CPRA) of <10%, 10%-79%, and ≥80%. We used multivariable logistic regressions for the analysis of risks for delayed graft function (DGF), and of acute rejection (AR) and hospitalization in the first year of transplant, and Cox hazard regression for 5-year overall graft loss (OAGL) and death.

Results: The kidney donor risk index (KDRI) highest two quartiles ≥1.45 and 1.15-1.44 were the most consistent predictors for 100% of adverse outcomes (OAGL, death, DGF, AR, and hospitalization) with high significance (P<0.0001) across all sensitization cohorts. The two risk factors that were consistently associated with 80% of adverse outcomes across sensitization cohorts were: (1) pre-transplant dialysis duration >2 years was significantly associated with increased risks of overall graft loss, death, DGF, and hospitalization; and (2) Black KTR race was significantly associated with increased risks of DGF, AR, and hospitalization, and decreased risk of death. Diabetes and KTR age >65 (years) were significant risk factors for overall loss and death across sensitization cohorts.

Conclusions: The two highest KDRI quartiles, pre-transplant dialysis duration >2 years, and African American recipient race are consistent predictors of multiple adverse outcomes in adult DDKTRs across sensitization strata and should be among the factors considered in clinical decision-making and research models in kidney transplantation.