Bing Wu , Ye Li , Baoguo Shi , Xiyu Zhang , Yongqiang Lai , Fuqiang Cui , Xiaodan Bai , Wenjing Xiang , Guihong Geng , Bei Liu , Mingli Jiao , Qunhong Wu , Huiying Yang , Chenxi Zhang , Xinwei Liu , Yulu Tian , Hongyu Li
{"title":"1990 年至 2044 年西太平洋地区乳腺癌负担的时间趋势:2019 年全球疾病负担研究的启示","authors":"Bing Wu , Ye Li , Baoguo Shi , Xiyu Zhang , Yongqiang Lai , Fuqiang Cui , Xiaodan Bai , Wenjing Xiang , Guihong Geng , Bei Liu , Mingli Jiao , Qunhong Wu , Huiying Yang , Chenxi Zhang , Xinwei Liu , Yulu Tian , Hongyu Li","doi":"10.1016/j.jare.2023.07.003","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><p>Breast cancer (BC) is a malignant disease that occurs worldwide and poses serious health burden.</p></div><div><h3>Objectives</h3><p>To assess the prevalence of BC burden in the Western Pacific region (WPR) from 1990 to 2019, and to predict trends from 2020 to 2044. To analyze the driving factors and put forward the region-oriented improvement.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, BC cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) cases, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and age-standardized DALYs rate in WPR from 1990 to 2019 was obtained and analysed. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to analyze age, period, and cohort effects in BC, and Bayesian APC (BAPC) was used to predict trends over the next 25 years.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>In conclusion, BC incidence and deaths in the WPR have increased rapidly over the past 30 years and are expected to continue to increase between 2020 and 2044. Among behavioral and metabolic factors, high body-mass index was the main risk factor for BC mortality in middle-income countries, whereas alcohol use was the main risk factor in Japan. Age is a key factor in the development of BC, with 40 years being the critical point. Incidence trends coincide with the course of economic development.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>The BC burden remains an essential public health issue in the WPR and will increase substantially in the future. More efforts should be made in middle-income countries to prompt the health behavior and minimize the burden of BC because these nations accounts for the majority of BC burden in the WPR.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":14952,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Advanced Research","volume":"59 ","pages":"Pages 189-199"},"PeriodicalIF":11.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2090123223001820/pdfft?md5=9d5caf49aecd9449108bed677b956192&pid=1-s2.0-S2090123223001820-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Temporal trends of breast cancer burden in the Western Pacific Region from 1990 to 2044: Implications from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019\",\"authors\":\"Bing Wu , Ye Li , Baoguo Shi , Xiyu Zhang , Yongqiang Lai , Fuqiang Cui , Xiaodan Bai , Wenjing Xiang , Guihong Geng , Bei Liu , Mingli Jiao , Qunhong Wu , Huiying Yang , Chenxi Zhang , Xinwei Liu , Yulu Tian , Hongyu Li\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jare.2023.07.003\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>Introduction</h3><p>Breast cancer (BC) is a malignant disease that occurs worldwide and poses serious health burden.</p></div><div><h3>Objectives</h3><p>To assess the prevalence of BC burden in the Western Pacific region (WPR) from 1990 to 2019, and to predict trends from 2020 to 2044. To analyze the driving factors and put forward the region-oriented improvement.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, BC cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) cases, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and age-standardized DALYs rate in WPR from 1990 to 2019 was obtained and analysed. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to analyze age, period, and cohort effects in BC, and Bayesian APC (BAPC) was used to predict trends over the next 25 years.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>In conclusion, BC incidence and deaths in the WPR have increased rapidly over the past 30 years and are expected to continue to increase between 2020 and 2044. Among behavioral and metabolic factors, high body-mass index was the main risk factor for BC mortality in middle-income countries, whereas alcohol use was the main risk factor in Japan. Age is a key factor in the development of BC, with 40 years being the critical point. Incidence trends coincide with the course of economic development.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>The BC burden remains an essential public health issue in the WPR and will increase substantially in the future. More efforts should be made in middle-income countries to prompt the health behavior and minimize the burden of BC because these nations accounts for the majority of BC burden in the WPR.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":14952,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of Advanced Research\",\"volume\":\"59 \",\"pages\":\"Pages 189-199\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":11.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-05-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2090123223001820/pdfft?md5=9d5caf49aecd9449108bed677b956192&pid=1-s2.0-S2090123223001820-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of Advanced Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"103\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2090123223001820\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"综合性期刊\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Advanced Research","FirstCategoryId":"103","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2090123223001820","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
导言乳腺癌(BC)是一种发生于全球并造成严重健康负担的恶性疾病。目的评估1990年至2019年西太平洋地区(WPR)BC负担的流行情况,并预测2020年至2044年的趋势。方法基于《2019年全球疾病负担研究》,获取并分析1990年至2019年西太平洋地区的BC病例、死亡病例、残疾调整生命年(DALYs)病例、年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)、年龄标准化死亡率(ASDR)和年龄标准化残疾调整生命年率。使用年龄-时期-队列(APC)模型分析了BC的年龄、时期和队列效应,并使用贝叶斯APC(BAPC)预测了未来25年的趋势。在行为和代谢因素中,高体重指数是中等收入国家 BC 死亡率的主要风险因素,而饮酒是日本的主要风险因素。年龄是 BC 发病的关键因素,40 岁是临界点。发病趋势与经济发展进程相吻合。中等收入国家应做出更多努力,促使人们养成良好的健康行为,最大限度地减轻巴塞病的负担,因为这些国家占世界公共卫生大会巴塞病负担的大多数。
Temporal trends of breast cancer burden in the Western Pacific Region from 1990 to 2044: Implications from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Introduction
Breast cancer (BC) is a malignant disease that occurs worldwide and poses serious health burden.
Objectives
To assess the prevalence of BC burden in the Western Pacific region (WPR) from 1990 to 2019, and to predict trends from 2020 to 2044. To analyze the driving factors and put forward the region-oriented improvement.
Methods
Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, BC cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) cases, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized death rate (ASDR), and age-standardized DALYs rate in WPR from 1990 to 2019 was obtained and analysed. Age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to analyze age, period, and cohort effects in BC, and Bayesian APC (BAPC) was used to predict trends over the next 25 years.
Results
In conclusion, BC incidence and deaths in the WPR have increased rapidly over the past 30 years and are expected to continue to increase between 2020 and 2044. Among behavioral and metabolic factors, high body-mass index was the main risk factor for BC mortality in middle-income countries, whereas alcohol use was the main risk factor in Japan. Age is a key factor in the development of BC, with 40 years being the critical point. Incidence trends coincide with the course of economic development.
Conclusions
The BC burden remains an essential public health issue in the WPR and will increase substantially in the future. More efforts should be made in middle-income countries to prompt the health behavior and minimize the burden of BC because these nations accounts for the majority of BC burden in the WPR.
期刊介绍:
Journal of Advanced Research (J. Adv. Res.) is an applied/natural sciences, peer-reviewed journal that focuses on interdisciplinary research. The journal aims to contribute to applied research and knowledge worldwide through the publication of original and high-quality research articles in the fields of Medicine, Pharmaceutical Sciences, Dentistry, Physical Therapy, Veterinary Medicine, and Basic and Biological Sciences.
The following abstracting and indexing services cover the Journal of Advanced Research: PubMed/Medline, Essential Science Indicators, Web of Science, Scopus, PubMed Central, PubMed, Science Citation Index Expanded, Directory of Open Access Journals (DOAJ), and INSPEC.