Association between vaccination status and severe health consequences among community-dwelling COVID-19 patients during Omicron BA.1/BA.2 and BA.5-predominant periods in Japan.

Background: Many previous studies have reported that COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness decreased over time and declined with newly emerging variants. However, there are few such studies in Japan. Using data from a community-based retrospective study, we aimed to assess the association between vaccination status and severe COVID-19 outcomes caused by the Omicron variant, considering the length of time since the last vaccination dose.

Methods: We included all persons aged ≥12 diagnosed with COVID-19 by a doctor and notified to the Chuwa Public Health Center of Nara Prefectural Government during the Omicron BA.1/BA.2 and BA.5-predominant periods in Japan (January 1 to September 25, 2022). The outcome variable was severe health consequences (SHC) (i.e., COVID-19-related hospitalization or death). The explanatory variable was vaccination status of the individuals (i.e., the number of vaccinations and length of time since last dose). Covariates included gender, age, risk factors for aggravation, and the number of hospital beds per population. Using the generalized estimating equations of the multivariable Poisson regression models, we estimated the cumulative incidence ratio (CIR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for SHC, with stratified analyses by period (BA.1/BA.2 or BA.5) and age (65 and older or 12-64 years).

Results: Of the 69,827 participants, 2,224 (3.2%) had SHC, 12,154 (17.4%) were unvaccinated, and 29,032 (41.6%) received ≥3 vaccine doses. Regardless of period or age, there was a significant dose-response relationship in which adjusted CIR for SHC decreased with an increased number of vaccinations and a longer time since the last vaccination. On the one hand, in the BA.5 period, those with ≥175 days after the third dose had no significant difference in people aged 65 and older (CIR 0.77; 95% CI, 0.53-1.12), but significantly lower CIR for SHC in people aged 12-64 (CIR 0.47; 95% CI, 0.26-0.84), compared with those with ≥14 days after the second dose.

Conclusion: A higher number of vaccinations were associated with lower risk of SHC against both BA.1/BA.2 and BA.5 sublineages. Our findings suggest that increasing the number of doses of COVID-19 vaccine can prevent severe COVID-19 outcomes, and that a biannual vaccination is recommended for older people.