Predictors for operative treatment in pediatric proximal third both-bone diaphyseal forearm fractures in children include age and translation, but not initial angulation.

Introduction: Proximal third diaphyseal fractures of the radius and ulna represent an onerous fracture pattern due to difficulty maintaining acceptable alignment with nonoperative management. Our aim was to identify the factors that increase the odds for a surgical treatment of these fractures. Recognizing these factors can raise awareness to patients who are more likely to require additional care and assist clinicians in counseling families, targeting treatment plans, and constructing follow-up protocols. We hypothesized that the age of the patient, the amount of initial fracture displacement, and the angulation of the fracture would predict the need for operative treatment.

Methods: We retrospectively reviewed 276 proximal third diaphyseal forearm fractures at a single tertiary care institution. All patients underwent a nonoperative treatment trial, and if failed continued to surgery. Following a univariate analysis, we constructed a binary multivariate logistic regression model that included age, initial translation, and initial angulation to assess the association between the tested variables.

Results: A regression model revealed that age (10 years and older, odds ratio: 8.2, 95% confidence interval: 3.9-17.24, p < 0.001) and radius translation of more than 100% (odds ratio: 7.06, 95% confidence interval: 2.69-18.52, p < 0.001) were associated with the need for surgical treatment. Initial fracture angulation lacked an association with a surgical treatment (odds ratio: 0.81 95% confidence interval: 0.38-1.74, p = 0.59).

Conclusion: Age above 10 years and 100% initial translation of the radius fracture increased the odds for an ultimate decision to perform a surgery. Initial angulation, although often being the most remarkable radiographic feature, was not associated with a nonoperative treatment failure. We recommend an initial reduction attempt after counseling patients and their families that there is a high rate of conversion to operative treatment when the above features are met.

Level of evidence: level III.