Conflict prevention as part of disaster preparedness: joining the dots.

By the time this editorial goes to press, there will tragically be nobody left alive under the rubble in Turkey or Syria – at present, miracles are still happening an incredible 11 days after the earthquakes. All the issues related to disaster preparedness are coming to the fore: how crucial the first 72 hours are, building construction standards, how people will survive outside in the cold and the cost of rehabilitation. Conflict resolution is not usually considered a part of disaster preparedness, but perhaps it should be. Jan Egeland, secretary-general of the Norwegian Refugee Council and former UN UnderSecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, described the situation: ‘When we needed passable roads, bridges, airports, passage points across border lines the most, they were gone because of the earthquake. On top of that, in Syria, this happens in the middle of a conflict zone’. Limited access to the area is blamed on both the Syrian and Turkish governments – and the actual situation is far from clear – but the patchwork of armed groups in Idlib province and the civilian communities they live within are still in refugee camps. These groups have diverse enemies, allies and international supporters, but the civilian communities they live within who make up the majority of the population have effectively been left in limbo. As Jan Egeland also said, this is effectively ‘an earthquake in a cluster of refugee camps’, and reconstruction of infrastructure – including schools – presently not allowed by donors has to be allowed even without a political solution that has been illusive for 11 years. Meanwhile, disaster preparedness in the form of a warning system for famine did seem to work – just – at the end of 2022 in Somalia. The failure of five consecutive rainy seasons and ongoing conflict and instability have taken a heavy toll. The World Food Programme and others scaled up the number of people they were supporting in response to a prediction of famine towards the end of 2022, particularly in the Baidoa and Burkhaba districts and displaced people in Somalia’s Bay region. While this and the efforts of local communities averted a famine then, whether to declare one is again being discussed, and on 8 February 2023, the United Nations, humanitarian partners in Somalia, and the Federal and State Governments released the 2023 Humanitarian Response Plan (HRP) for Somalia. They concluded that there is a strong possibility of famine occurring from April to June 2023 if current MEDICINE, CONFLICT AND SURVIVAL 2023, VOL. 39, NO. 1, 1–3 https://doi.org/10.1080/13623699.2023.2185088