在一个方向性预测的世界里承担理论上的风险

Applied & preventive psychology : journal of the American Association of Applied and Preventive Psychology Pub Date : 2004-06-01 DOI:10.1016/j.appsy.2004.02.008

Scott O Lilienfeld

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引用次数: 7

摘要

正如Meehl(1978)所观察到的那样，软心理学进展缓慢的一个主要原因是我们的领域严重依赖于方向性预测，这导致了对理论的微弱测试。在当前的评论中，我概述了在方向性预测的世界中承担理论风险的六种方法:(1)建设性地复制研究结果，(2)生成多个最大程度独立的预测，(3)遵守总证据规则，(4)判别验证措施，(5)增量验证措施，(6)根据对高阶人格维度的关注。

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Taking theoretical risks in a world of directional predictions

As Meehl (1978) observed, one major reason for the painfully slow progress of soft psychology is our field’s heavy reliance on directional predictions, which leads to feeble tests of theories. In the present commentary, I outline six ways of taking theoretical risks in a world of directional predictions: (1) constructive replication of findings, (2) generating multiple maximally independent predictions, (3) adherence to the total evidence rule, (4) discriminant validation of measures, (5) incremental validation of measures, and (6) according attention to higher-order personality dimensions.

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Applied & preventive psychology : journal of the American Association of Applied and Preventive Psychology

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