在未来和预见中对科学理论的抵制,以及如何应对

Alessandro Fergnani, Thomas J. Chermack
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引用次数: 20

摘要

我们对期货和预见领域未能成功地成为社会科学机构的一部分的原因进行了论证性解释。我们认为,未来和远见的规范、信念和认识论基础在本质上是自我破坏的,因为它们抵制在组织中创建关于未来和远见实践和过程的科学理论。从管理学和组织科学的传统中,我们描述了在组织背景下什么是科学理论,什么不是科学理论,以及理论的发展如何促进科学领域的渐进进步。然后,我们解开问题的症结,将我们领域内对科学理论的抵制解构为九个密切相关的原因。我们以三套建议的形式提供解决方案:作者,期刊编辑和从业者。我们通过提前回应可能的误解来结束。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The resistance to scientific theory in futures and foresight, and what to do about it

We offer an argumentative explanation of the reasons why the field of futures and foresight has not been successful at becoming part of the social scientific establishment. We contend that the very set of norms, beliefs, and epistemological foundations of futures and foresight are essentially self-sabotaging as they resist the creation of scientific theory on futures and foresight practices and processes in organizations. Drawing from the tradition of management and organization sciences, we describe what scientific theory in the context of organizations is and is not, and how theory development contributes to the incremental progress of scientific fields. We then unpack the crux of the problem, deconstructing the resistance to scientific theory within our field into nine, closely related reasons. We offer solutions to the problem in the form of three sets of recommendations: for authors, journal editors, and practitioners. We conclude by responding to likely misunderstandings in advance.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
7.00
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