Biecological Carrying Capacity of Forest and Land in Manokwari Regency, West Papua Province

Manokwari Regency has high environmental risks due to the high rate of population growth and increased migration. This condition could affect the biocapacity of forest and land resources as well as the ecological footprint that could fulfill the needs of the community in the Manokwari Regency. This study aimed to assess the bioecological carrying capacity of forest and land, changes in forest cover, and projecting the bioecological carrying capacity for the next 50 years in the Manokwari Regency. A quantitative descriptive approach based on secondary time series data analysis and land cover dynamics analysis was used. The ecological footprint approach was carried out by calculating the ecological footprint, biocapacity, and bioecological carrying capacity. The results showed that the bioecological carrying capacity in 2017 in Manokwari District decreased compared to 2012. Forest degradation tended to decrease at a rate of 372 ha/year. However, deforestation increased at a rate of 1,298 ha/year. The results indicated that the policy of converting forests to permanent non-forest lands in the last five years was very massive. The projected bioecological carrying capacity in the next 50 years show ed that forest and land in Manokwari District tend to be overshoot. Keywords:  bioecological carrying capacity, change in land use, forests , land , Manokwari