The Cost of Recidivism: A Dynamic Systems Model to Evaluate the Benefits of a Restorative Reentry Program

Abstract Hawai‘i Friends of Restorative Justice has developed and implemented a reentry planning process to support incarcerated individuals as they prepare to reenter society. With 16 years of successful practice, research has shown that the program has many benefits, including reducing recidivism by 26 percent among recipients. In this paper, we use systems analysis to explore the long-term effects of a reduction in recidivism on the prison population and evaluate the economic and social benefits of such a program. The paper describes a simulation modeling method that quantifies the predicted effect of recidivism on the prison population, shows the net benefit of the reentry program, and demonstrates the usefulness of modern simulation tools in policy analysis of the criminal justice system. We calibrate the model with data on Hawai‘i state prisons. The model indicates that a 26 percent reduction in recidivism leads to a 17 percent reduction in the prison population over 15 years by reducing the number of recidivists in prison by 40 percent. Considering the marginal and average cost of imprisonment, the estimated benefits substantially outweigh the cost of the program with even the most conservative accounting of marginal costs.