{"title":"使用PT. HIS Tour and Travel的方法决定树的方法来开一个新的分支机构","authors":"Sofiyatun Sofiyatun, Haryadi Sarjono","doi":"10.36407/JMSAB.V2I1.63","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this research is to find out the forecasting of flight ticket sales at PT. HIS Tour & Travel Branch MM 2100 Cibitung. This research method uses forecasting with 7 methods namely Exponential Smoothing, Moving Average, Trend Projection, Addictive Decomposition Average All, Addictive Decomposition Centered Moving Average, Multiplicative Average All and Multiplicative Decomposition Centered Moving Average. This research is supported bya QM For Windows application. The results of this study indicate that the Addictive Decomposition Centered Moving Average method is the best method because it has the smallest MAD and MSE value of 104.76 and 22.897,57 with the results of sales forecasting in the next period which is 1371. This study also uses the Decision Tree method for opening decision new branch, the results obtained are the opening of new branches in the city of Bekasi with an expected value of Rp 280,560,000. \nKeywords: sales promotion, Forecasting, MAD, MSE, QM For Windows, Decision Tree","PeriodicalId":17763,"journal":{"name":"Jurnal Manajemen Strategi dan Aplikasi Bisnis","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2019-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Penggunaan metode decision tree pada PT. HIS Tour & Travel untuk pembukaan cabang baru\",\"authors\":\"Sofiyatun Sofiyatun, Haryadi Sarjono\",\"doi\":\"10.36407/JMSAB.V2I1.63\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The purpose of this research is to find out the forecasting of flight ticket sales at PT. HIS Tour & Travel Branch MM 2100 Cibitung. This research method uses forecasting with 7 methods namely Exponential Smoothing, Moving Average, Trend Projection, Addictive Decomposition Average All, Addictive Decomposition Centered Moving Average, Multiplicative Average All and Multiplicative Decomposition Centered Moving Average. This research is supported bya QM For Windows application. The results of this study indicate that the Addictive Decomposition Centered Moving Average method is the best method because it has the smallest MAD and MSE value of 104.76 and 22.897,57 with the results of sales forecasting in the next period which is 1371. This study also uses the Decision Tree method for opening decision new branch, the results obtained are the opening of new branches in the city of Bekasi with an expected value of Rp 280,560,000. \\nKeywords: sales promotion, Forecasting, MAD, MSE, QM For Windows, Decision Tree\",\"PeriodicalId\":17763,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Jurnal Manajemen Strategi dan Aplikasi Bisnis\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2019-04-30\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Jurnal Manajemen Strategi dan Aplikasi Bisnis\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.36407/JMSAB.V2I1.63\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Jurnal Manajemen Strategi dan Aplikasi Bisnis","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.36407/JMSAB.V2I1.63","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
本研究的目的是为了找出台北东方旅行社有限公司台北2100旅行社的机票销售预测。本研究方法采用指数平滑法、移动平均法、趋势预测法、成瘾分解平均法、成瘾分解中心移动平均法、乘法平均法和乘法分解中心移动平均法7种预测方法。本研究由QM For Windows应用程序支持。本研究结果表明，上瘾分解中心移动平均法是最好的方法，因为它的MAD和MSE值最小，分别为104.76和22.897,57，下一时期的销售预测结果为1371。本研究还采用决策树方法进行开设新分行的决策，得到的结果是贝卡西市开设新分行的期望值为280,56万卢比。关键词:促销，预测，MAD, MSE, Windows QM，决策树
Penggunaan metode decision tree pada PT. HIS Tour & Travel untuk pembukaan cabang baru
The purpose of this research is to find out the forecasting of flight ticket sales at PT. HIS Tour & Travel Branch MM 2100 Cibitung. This research method uses forecasting with 7 methods namely Exponential Smoothing, Moving Average, Trend Projection, Addictive Decomposition Average All, Addictive Decomposition Centered Moving Average, Multiplicative Average All and Multiplicative Decomposition Centered Moving Average. This research is supported bya QM For Windows application. The results of this study indicate that the Addictive Decomposition Centered Moving Average method is the best method because it has the smallest MAD and MSE value of 104.76 and 22.897,57 with the results of sales forecasting in the next period which is 1371. This study also uses the Decision Tree method for opening decision new branch, the results obtained are the opening of new branches in the city of Bekasi with an expected value of Rp 280,560,000.
Keywords: sales promotion, Forecasting, MAD, MSE, QM For Windows, Decision Tree
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