总统信心与股市表现

Yosef Bonaparte
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引用次数: 1

摘要

我们表明,股票市场以非线性凹形方式定价总统的胜利幅度,中等的价格高于轻微或压倒性的胜利。我们推测,这种优势反映了总统的自信和执行政策的能力。微弱的优势会给金融市场带来不稳定的信号,成为对总统缺乏信心的信号,而决定性的胜利则会给总统提供过多的“政治资本”和大胆的政策执行授权,从而使总统变得过于自信。此外,胜差与经济和政治指标一致:胜差越大,政策的不确定性和党派冲突就越大。我们的推断揭示了“总统之谜”,因为许多共和党总统赢得了决定性的胜利(雷根两次,尼克松等),而更多的民主党人获得了中等程度的胜利。总的来说,总统的信心影响股市,是一个关键的外生决定因素考虑。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
President’s Confidence and the Stock Market Performance
We show that the stock market pricing the presidential margin of victory in a nonlinear concave fashion, with a higher price for medium than slight or crushing victories. We conjecture that the margin of victory reflects president confidence and the ability to execute policies. A small margin sends instability signal to financial markets as a lack of confidence president, whereas a decisive victory provides excessive ‘political capital’ and a bold mandate to execute policies, which turns the president to be overconfident. Furthermore, margin of victory commoves with financial and political indicators: the greater the margin of victory the larger the policy uncertainty and partisan conflict. Our inference shed light on “the presidential puzzle,” as many Republican presidents won decisively (Raegan twice, Nixon, etc.), while more Democrats with medium victories. Collectively, president’s confidence affects the stock market and is a key exogenous determinant to consider.
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