建立反映气候变化影响的综合时空数据库

IF 0.4 Q4 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED
A. Shelomentsev, K. S. Goncharova, Artem A. Shelomentsev, Aleksej S. Kruglikov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目前,在全球和区域(国家)层面,专家社区以及政治家们已经优先考虑实际实施可持续发展目标的任务(表征社会生态和经济系统各种参数发展的动态)。实现这些目标需要在深入和全面分析各个领域正在发生的进程的基础上进行认真的分析工作,以及建立一个适当的信息平台,包括一套充分描述国家活动各个领域正在发生的变化的数据库。然而,今天,在俄罗斯的实践中,这一工具实际上是不存在的,这大大复杂化了俄罗斯地区(包括居住在其中的人口)适应全球气候变化后果的定性和定量分析、评估和预测过程。本研究的目的是建立西西伯利亚北部地区(汉特-曼西斯克自治区和亚马尔-涅涅茨自治区)社会生态和经济系统适应全球气候变化过程的指标数据库。预计的数据库应成为为广大用户在解决有关全球气候变暖对永久冻土影响的社会经济评估的分析和预测任务时创建开放信息资源的基础。为实现研究目标,采用了理论概括与比较、形式化、算法化、结构化与分组、经济与统计方法(包括相关与回归分析)、制图法、图形建模法等方法。因此,我们已经形成了一个数据库,代表一个单一的,定期更新的存储库,其中包含表征过程和现象的时空数据集,一方面是社会生态和经济系统,另一方面是气候变化。在现有定量数据和数理统计方法的基础上,数据库的进一步工作假定确定易受全球气候变化影响的KhMAO和YaNAO的生态、社会经济系统的要素,并预测其(系统)转变的动态。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Development of an integrated space-time database, characterizing an effects of climate change
Currently, at the global and regional (national) levels, the expert community, as well as statesmen, have prioritized the task of practical implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (characterizing the dynamics of a development of various parameters of socio-ecological and economic systems). Achieving these goals requires serious analytical work based on a deep and comprehensive analysis of a processes taking place in various spheres, as well as the formation of an appropriate information platform, including a set of databases that adequately describe changes taking place in various spheres of state activity. However, today, in Russian practice, this tool is practically absent, which significantly complicates the qualitative and quantitative analysis, assessment and forecasting of the processes of adaptation of Russian regions (including the population living in them) to consequences of global climate change. The purpose of this study is to form a database of indicators characterizing process of adaptation of socio-ecological and economic systems of a northern regions of Western Siberia (The Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug) to global climate change. The projected database should become the basis for creating an open information resource for a wide range of users when they solve analytical and predictive tasks related to a socio-economic assessment of an impact of global climate warming on permafrost. To achieve the objectives of the study, a set of methods was used: theoretical generalization and comparison, formalization, algorithmization, structuring and grouping, economic and statistical methods (including correlation and regression analysis), cartographic method, graphical modeling method. As a result, we have formed a database representing a single, periodically updated repository containing spatio-temporal data sets characterizing processes and phenomena, on the one hand, socio-ecological and economic systems, on the other – climate change. Further work with the database assumes, on the basis of available quantitative data and methods of mathematical statistics, the identification of elements of the ecological, socio-economic systems of the KhMAO and YaNAO vulnerable to global climate change, as well as forecasting the dynamics of their (systems) transformation.
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