坦桑尼亚可再生能源发电的经济学

Baraka Kichonge, I. Mkilaha, G. John, S. Hameer
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引用次数: 4

摘要

该研究分析了坦桑尼亚可再生能源发电的经济性。分析了商业照常(BAU)情景和可再生能源(RE)情景,这两种情景强制执行可再生能源股份进入发电系统。结果表明,与可再生能源方案相比,BAU方案的总投资成本要低得多,而BAU方案的运营和维护可变成本更高。与可再生能源方案相比,BAU方案中的一次能源供应更高,投资成本更低。此外,由于强制性渗透政策的实施,与可再生能源情景相比,可再生能源在BAU情景中的份额微不足道。分析得出结论,可再生能源方案的投资成本要高得多,同时运营和可变成本更低,一次能源供应也更少。敏感性分析表明,无论煤炭和CCGT电厂的投资成本如何变化,可再生能源技术的渗透率仍然不显著。尽管可再生能源技术在相关的较高投资成本方面存在弱点,但一个有趣的结果是,基于包括可再生能源在内的国内资源,有可能满足未来的电力需求。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Economics of Renewable Energy Sources into Electricity Generation in Tanzania
The study analyzes the economics of renewable energy sources into electricity generation in Tanzania. Business as usual (BAU) scenario and renewable energy (RE) scenario which enforce a mandatory penetration of renewable energy sources shares into electricity generations were analyzed. The results show total investment cost for the BAU scenario is much lower as compared to RE scenario while operating and maintenance variable costs are higher in BAU scenario. Primary energy supply in BAU scenario is higher tied with less investment costs as compared to RE scenario. Furthermore, the share of renewable energy sources in BAU scenario is insignificant as compared to RE scenario due to mandatory penetration policy imposed. Analysis concludes that there are much higher investments costs in RE scenario accompanied with less operating and variable costs and lower primary energy supply. Sensitivity analysis carried out suggests that regardless of changes in investments cost of coal and CCGT power plants, the penetration of renewable energy technologies was still insignificant. Notwithstanding the weaknesses of renewable energy technologies in terms of the associated higher investments costs, an interesting result is that it is possible to meet future electricity demand based on domestic resources including renewables.
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