Risk adjusted assessment of individual surgeon's pancreatic fistula outcomes.

Background: Post-operative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a major cause of morbidity following pancreatoduodenectomy. The risk of POPF varies between individuals and thus assessment without risk adjustment is crude. However, despite the availability of numerous scores to determine risk, no study has provided a risk adjusted assessment of POPF outcomes.

Methods: The observed and risk adjusted occurrence of POPF from consecutive patients operated upon by eight surgeons were recorded. Surgeons varied in experience from newly appointed (n = 5) to established (n = 3). CUSUM (cumulative sum) analysis was used to assess performance.

Results: 104 POPF occurred among 519 patients (20.0%). The occurrence of POPF was significantly lower among experienced surgeons (20/186, 10.7% vs 84/333, 25.2%; p < 0.001). Following risk adjustment surgeons observed 16.6 fewer to 6.5 excess POPF per 100 patients than predicted. Analysis of the CUSUM plots demonstrated the experienced surgeons performed steadily with a gradual reduction in observed POPF compared to what was predicted. The new surgeon's performance was less consistent and evidence of a learning curve was observed with steady improvement occurring after 50-70 patients.

Conclusions: Risk adjusted assessment of POPF demonstrates differences between experienced and less experienced surgeons. This method could be used to audit practice and observe effects of changes to technique.