大流行管理的最佳疫苗接种战略及其对经济复苏的影响

IF 1.1 4区综合性期刊 Q3 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Current Science Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.18520/cs/v124/i3/319-326

Vansh Kodesia, Ankur Suri, Sarita Azad

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引用次数: 0

摘要

2019冠状病毒病大流行对世界各国的经济影响是毁灭性的。我们提出了一种利用社区流动性估算繁殖数(r0)以获得最佳疫苗接种覆盖率(OVC)的新方法。使用非线性回归模型评估实现预期免疫接种率的不同情况。还评估了经济复苏对流动性的影响，以确定经济在各种情况下的表现。新冠肺炎疫情导致的封锁限制了流动性，是导致GDP下降的主要原因。对于印度的孟买市，随着恢复率从1%增加到5%，人们观察到流动性和经济活动可能在一定程度上得到了恢复。这里提出的调查结果可能有助于理事机构制定更有效的应急计划。

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An optimal vaccination strategy for pandemic management and its impact on economic recovery

The economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has been devastating for countries across the world. We propose a novel method for estimating reproduction number ( R 0 ) using community mobility to obtain optimal vaccination coverage (OVC). Different scenarios for achieving the desired immunization rates are evaluated using nonlinear regression models. The impact of recovery rates on mobility is also assessed to determine how the economy would have fared in various scenarios. Lock-downs due to COVID-19, which restricted mobility, were the main cause of the decline in GDP. For the city of Mumbai in India, with an increase in recovery rate from 1% to 5%, it was observed that mobility and thus economic activity might have been restored to some extent. The findings presented here may aid the governing bodies in developing more effective emergency response plans.

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来源期刊

Current Science 综合性期刊-综合性期刊

CiteScore

1.50

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

3 months

期刊介绍： Current Science, published every fortnight by the Association, in collaboration with the Indian Academy of Sciences, is the leading interdisciplinary science journal from India. It was started in 1932 by the then stalwarts of Indian science such as CV Raman, Birbal Sahni, Meghnad Saha, Martin Foster and S.S. Bhatnagar. In 2011, the journal completed one hundred volumes. The journal is intended as a medium for communication and discussion of important issues that concern science and scientific activities. Besides full length research articles and shorter research communications, the journal publishes review articles, scientific correspondence and commentaries, news and views, comments on recently published research papers, opinions on scientific activity, articles on universities, Indian laboratories and institutions, interviews with scientists, personal information, book reviews, etc. It is also a forum to discuss issues and problems faced by science and scientists and an effective medium of interaction among scientists in the country and abroad. Current Science is read by a large community of scientists and the circulation has been continuously going up. Current Science publishes special sections on diverse and topical themes of interest and this has served as a platform for the scientific fraternity to get their work acknowledged and highlighted. Some of the special sections that have been well received in the recent past include remote sensing, waves and symmetry, seismology in India, nanomaterials, AIDS, Alzheimer''s disease, molecular biology of ageing, cancer, cardiovascular diseases, Indian monsoon, water, transport, and mountain weather forecasting in India, to name a few. Contributions to these special issues ‘which receive widespread attention’ are from leading scientists in India and abroad.