宏观经济变量对外汇储备的影响:以巴基斯坦为例

IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS
M. Azeem, M. Khurshid
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引用次数: 2

摘要

这项研究的目的是调查宏观经济指标对巴基斯坦外汇储备的影响。本文采用向量自回归(VAR)模型对1984 - 2015年巴基斯坦外汇储备需求进行了估算。结果表明,宏观经济变量,如汇款、汇率、经常账户赤字与GDP的比率和利率差异(作为机会成本衡量)决定了该国的长期储备需求函数。然而,观察结果表明,外汇储备需求对资本账户脆弱性高度敏感,对资本账户脆弱性的机会成本反应较小。格兰杰因果分析表明,各宏观经济变量之间不存在反向因果关系。这意味着巴基斯坦对外汇储备的需求是由宏观经济稳定驱动的。该研究有助于国家机构通过控制宏观经济指标来增加外汇储备。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Impact of macroeconomic variables on foreign exchange reserves: A case from Pakistan
The study aims to investigate the effect of macroeconomic indicators on foreign reserves in Pakistan. A Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model has been used to estimate Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves demand from the period of 1984 to 2015. Findings/Originality : The results indicate that macroeconomic variables such as remittances, exchange rate, the ratio of current account deficit to GDP and interest rate differential (measure as opportunity cost) determine the country’s long-run reserves demand function. Whereas, observed results show that demand of foreign reserves is highly sensitive to capital account vulnerability and less responsive to its opportunity cost. The Granger causality analysis shows that the various macroeconomic variables fail to cause reverse causality. It implies that in Pakistan the demand of reserves is driven by macroeconomic stability. The study is helpful for the country’s institutions to boost foreign reserves by controlling macroeconomics indicators.
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20.00%
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12 weeks
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