基于copula的圣保罗社区种族不平等与死亡年龄之间关系的量化研究

4open Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI:10.1051/fopen/2020012
V. González-López, Rafael Rodrigues de Moraes
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引用次数: 1

摘要

在本文中,我们结合了两种统计工具,目的是创建模型来表示(i)黑人/棕色人口占社区总人口的比例(pct)和(ii)社区中人们死亡的平均年龄(age)之间的依赖关系。我们在2018年期间探索了巴西圣保罗市的pct和年龄之间的依赖关系。根据贝叶斯的观点,统计工具是copulas模型和信息设置和非信息设置。不同的情景和模型使我们能够描绘出pct和年龄之间的依赖关系,并且,通过贝叶斯信息准则,我们可以指出这些模型中哪一个最能代表数据。本文采用的方法允许我们定义受pct百分比区间限制的预期寿命变化估计值。通过这些估计值,我们可以得出结论,平均而言,所有情景都表明,通过增加pct的比例,预期寿命会减少。当pct的百分比分别设置为4个区间(0,0.25],(0.25,0.5],(0.5,0.75],(0.75,1])时,我们注意到,与[0,1]中从左到右的直接和下一个区间相比,期望从一个区间平均以恒定的速率降低。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
A copula-based quantifying of the relationship between race inequality among neighbourhoods in São Paulo and age at death
In this paper, we combine two statistical tools with the objective of creating models that represent the dependence between (i) the proportion of the black/brown population in relation to the total population of a neighborhood (pct) and (ii) the average age at which people died in the neighborhood (age). We explore the dependence between pct and age in São Paulo city, Brazil, during 2018. The statistical tools are models of copulas and informative and non-informative settings according to the Bayesian perspective. The different scenarios and models allow us to delineate the dependence between pct and age, and, through the Bayesian Information Criterion we can indicate which of these models best represents the data. The approach implemented here allows us to define estimates of variations in life expectancy conditioned by percentage intervals of pct. With them, we can conclude that on average all the scenarios point to a decrease in life expectancy by increasing the proportion of pct. When conditioning the percentages of pct to 4 intervals (0, 0.25], (0.25, 0.5], (0.5, 0.75], (0.75, 1] respectively, we note that the expectation is reduced in average at a constant rate from one interval in comparison with the immediate and next interval from left to right in [0, 1].
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