Camila Beatriz Alves da Rocha , Lúbia Maieles Gomes Machado , Pãmela Rodrigues de Souza Silva , Bruna Hinnah Borges Martins de Freitas , Iara Denise Endruweit Battisti , Emerson Soares dos Santos , Silvana Margarida Benevides Ferreira
{"title":"儿童青少年新冠肺炎发病趋势及时空聚集性分析","authors":"Camila Beatriz Alves da Rocha , Lúbia Maieles Gomes Machado , Pãmela Rodrigues de Souza Silva , Bruna Hinnah Borges Martins de Freitas , Iara Denise Endruweit Battisti , Emerson Soares dos Santos , Silvana Margarida Benevides Ferreira","doi":"10.1016/j.jped.2023.10.004","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objective</h3><p>To analyze the morbidity trend and space-time distribution clusters of confirmed COVID-19 cases in children and adolescents.</p></div><div><h3>Method</h3><p>An ecological study of COVID-19 cases confirmed in the Information System from 2020 to 2022 in the age group from 0 to 19 years old, residents in Mato Grosso municipalities, Brazilian Midwest region. A trend analysis of the monthly morbidity rate of cases/100,000 inhabitants was used, following <em>Prais-Winsten</em>'s regression. A space-time distribution of the Bayesian incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants was performed, in addition to a space-time scan to identify high-risk clusters.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>Of all 79,592 COVID-19 cases studied, 51.6% were in females and 44.21% in people aged 15–19 years old. The mean monthly rate was 265.87 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with a stationary trend in the period analyzed (Monthly Percentage Variation [MPV]) = 12.15; CI<sub>95%[MPV]</sub>: -0.73;26.70). The morbidity rate due to COVID-19 was higher in the female gender (283.14/100,000 inhabitants) and in the age group from 15 to 19 years old (485.90/100,000 inhabitants). An increasing trend was observed with a greater monthly time variation of 14.42% (CI<sub>95%[MPV]</sub>: 1.28;29.28)] among those aged from 10 to 14 years old. The primary cluster, which was also the one with the highest Relative Risk (RR = 5,16, <em>p</em>-value = 0.001), included 19 municipalities located in the North health macro-region.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>The findings indicated a monthly stationary trend in the study population, an increase in the age group from 10 to 14 years old, and areas at a higher risk for the disease in the North health macro-region of the state.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":14867,"journal":{"name":"Jornal de pediatria","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0021755723001341/pdfft?md5=1f560e80f2f1972e74696bd8a4783d55&pid=1-s2.0-S0021755723001341-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Morbidity trend and space-time clusters of COVID-19 occurrence in children and adolescents\",\"authors\":\"Camila Beatriz Alves da Rocha , Lúbia Maieles Gomes Machado , Pãmela Rodrigues de Souza Silva , Bruna Hinnah Borges Martins de Freitas , Iara Denise Endruweit Battisti , Emerson Soares dos Santos , Silvana Margarida Benevides Ferreira\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jped.2023.10.004\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>Objective</h3><p>To analyze the morbidity trend and space-time distribution clusters of confirmed COVID-19 cases in children and adolescents.</p></div><div><h3>Method</h3><p>An ecological study of COVID-19 cases confirmed in the Information System from 2020 to 2022 in the age group from 0 to 19 years old, residents in Mato Grosso municipalities, Brazilian Midwest region. A trend analysis of the monthly morbidity rate of cases/100,000 inhabitants was used, following <em>Prais-Winsten</em>'s regression. A space-time distribution of the Bayesian incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants was performed, in addition to a space-time scan to identify high-risk clusters.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>Of all 79,592 COVID-19 cases studied, 51.6% were in females and 44.21% in people aged 15–19 years old. The mean monthly rate was 265.87 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with a stationary trend in the period analyzed (Monthly Percentage Variation [MPV]) = 12.15; CI<sub>95%[MPV]</sub>: -0.73;26.70). The morbidity rate due to COVID-19 was higher in the female gender (283.14/100,000 inhabitants) and in the age group from 15 to 19 years old (485.90/100,000 inhabitants). An increasing trend was observed with a greater monthly time variation of 14.42% (CI<sub>95%[MPV]</sub>: 1.28;29.28)] among those aged from 10 to 14 years old. The primary cluster, which was also the one with the highest Relative Risk (RR = 5,16, <em>p</em>-value = 0.001), included 19 municipalities located in the North health macro-region.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusion</h3><p>The findings indicated a monthly stationary trend in the study population, an increase in the age group from 10 to 14 years old, and areas at a higher risk for the disease in the North health macro-region of the state.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":14867,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Jornal de pediatria\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-03-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0021755723001341/pdfft?md5=1f560e80f2f1972e74696bd8a4783d55&pid=1-s2.0-S0021755723001341-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Jornal de pediatria\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0021755723001341\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"PEDIATRICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Jornal de pediatria","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0021755723001341","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"PEDIATRICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Morbidity trend and space-time clusters of COVID-19 occurrence in children and adolescents
Objective
To analyze the morbidity trend and space-time distribution clusters of confirmed COVID-19 cases in children and adolescents.
Method
An ecological study of COVID-19 cases confirmed in the Information System from 2020 to 2022 in the age group from 0 to 19 years old, residents in Mato Grosso municipalities, Brazilian Midwest region. A trend analysis of the monthly morbidity rate of cases/100,000 inhabitants was used, following Prais-Winsten's regression. A space-time distribution of the Bayesian incidence rate per 100,000 inhabitants was performed, in addition to a space-time scan to identify high-risk clusters.
Results
Of all 79,592 COVID-19 cases studied, 51.6% were in females and 44.21% in people aged 15–19 years old. The mean monthly rate was 265.87 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, with a stationary trend in the period analyzed (Monthly Percentage Variation [MPV]) = 12.15; CI95%[MPV]: -0.73;26.70). The morbidity rate due to COVID-19 was higher in the female gender (283.14/100,000 inhabitants) and in the age group from 15 to 19 years old (485.90/100,000 inhabitants). An increasing trend was observed with a greater monthly time variation of 14.42% (CI95%[MPV]: 1.28;29.28)] among those aged from 10 to 14 years old. The primary cluster, which was also the one with the highest Relative Risk (RR = 5,16, p-value = 0.001), included 19 municipalities located in the North health macro-region.
Conclusion
The findings indicated a monthly stationary trend in the study population, an increase in the age group from 10 to 14 years old, and areas at a higher risk for the disease in the North health macro-region of the state.
期刊介绍：
Jornal de Pediatria is a bimonthly publication of the Brazilian Society of Pediatrics (Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria, SBP). It has been published without interruption since 1934. Jornal de Pediatria publishes original articles and review articles covering various areas in the field of pediatrics. By publishing relevant scientific contributions, Jornal de Pediatria aims at improving the standards of pediatrics and of the healthcare provided for children and adolescents in general, as well to foster debate about health.
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
京公网安备 11010802042870号
