Statistical relations between in-situ measured Bz component and thermospheric density variations

Through advanced statistical investigation and evaluation of solar wind plasma and magnetic field data, we investigate the statistical relation between the magnetic field B_z component, measured at L1, and Earth’s thermospheric neutral density. We will present preliminary results of the time series analyzes using in-situ plasma and magnetic field measurements from different spacecraft in near Earth space (e.g., ACE, Wind, DSCOVR) and relate those to derived thermospheric densities from various satellites (e.g., GRACE, CHAMP). The long and short term variations and dependencies in the solar wind data are related to variations in the neutral density of the thermosphere and geomagnetic indices. Special focus is put on the specific signatures that stem from coronal mass ejections and stream or corotating interaction regions.  The results are used to develop a novel short-term forecasting model called SODA (Satellite Orbit DecAy). This is a joint study between TU Graz and University of Graz funded by the FFG Austria (project “SWEETS”).