{"title":"运用增长曲线模型对中巴油气运输走廊前景进行了分析","authors":"Wencheng Huang, B. Shuai, Yonghui Shen","doi":"10.3846/transport.2022.16851","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In order to analysing the oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import and consumption changing trends, the Occurrence Period (OP), Growth Period (GP) and Maturation Period (MP) of oil and LNG import and consumption in China, and studying how the oil and LNG import and consumption changing trends influence the development of China–Pakistan oil and LNG transportation corridor (CPOLTC), in this paper we apply a Growth Curve Model (GCM) based approach to solve the problems mentioned above. First, the Chinese oil and LNG import and consumption changing trends are analysed by applying the GCM. The results show that oil and LNG consumption and import belong to the GP because of the fast industrialization and urbanization development, so the oil and LNG import and consumption demand will increase fast; Then, the External Dependence (ED) is applied to describe the oil and LNG consumption dependence degree in China, the results show that import will remain high ED value, especially for the oil import (over 70%), which means the security of the energy supply chain still remains the central idea of Chin’s energy policies. Finally, the challenges and key issues of CPOLTC is analysed. Challenges are: domestic political struggles and institutional defects in Pakistan make the CPOLTC projects lacking of implementation, security along the corridor, influence and competition from external forces, impacts of western project culture, the comprehensive projects establishment ability in Pakistan, etc. The key issues are: Value Engineering (VE) researches for projects, Chinese element such as project construction, management, standards and specifications, assessment of the projects’ life cycle and so on.","PeriodicalId":23260,"journal":{"name":"Transport","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2022-05-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"USING GROWTH CURVES MODEL TO ANALYSE THE PROSPECTS OF CHINA–PAKISTAN OIL AND LNG TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR\",\"authors\":\"Wencheng Huang, B. Shuai, Yonghui Shen\",\"doi\":\"10.3846/transport.2022.16851\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In order to analysing the oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import and consumption changing trends, the Occurrence Period (OP), Growth Period (GP) and Maturation Period (MP) of oil and LNG import and consumption in China, and studying how the oil and LNG import and consumption changing trends influence the development of China–Pakistan oil and LNG transportation corridor (CPOLTC), in this paper we apply a Growth Curve Model (GCM) based approach to solve the problems mentioned above. First, the Chinese oil and LNG import and consumption changing trends are analysed by applying the GCM. The results show that oil and LNG consumption and import belong to the GP because of the fast industrialization and urbanization development, so the oil and LNG import and consumption demand will increase fast; Then, the External Dependence (ED) is applied to describe the oil and LNG consumption dependence degree in China, the results show that import will remain high ED value, especially for the oil import (over 70%), which means the security of the energy supply chain still remains the central idea of Chin’s energy policies. Finally, the challenges and key issues of CPOLTC is analysed. Challenges are: domestic political struggles and institutional defects in Pakistan make the CPOLTC projects lacking of implementation, security along the corridor, influence and competition from external forces, impacts of western project culture, the comprehensive projects establishment ability in Pakistan, etc. The key issues are: Value Engineering (VE) researches for projects, Chinese element such as project construction, management, standards and specifications, assessment of the projects’ life cycle and so on.\",\"PeriodicalId\":23260,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Transport\",\"volume\":\"27 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-05-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Transport\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3846/transport.2022.16851\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Transport","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3846/transport.2022.16851","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"TRANSPORTATION SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
USING GROWTH CURVES MODEL TO ANALYSE THE PROSPECTS OF CHINA–PAKISTAN OIL AND LNG TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR
In order to analysing the oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) import and consumption changing trends, the Occurrence Period (OP), Growth Period (GP) and Maturation Period (MP) of oil and LNG import and consumption in China, and studying how the oil and LNG import and consumption changing trends influence the development of China–Pakistan oil and LNG transportation corridor (CPOLTC), in this paper we apply a Growth Curve Model (GCM) based approach to solve the problems mentioned above. First, the Chinese oil and LNG import and consumption changing trends are analysed by applying the GCM. The results show that oil and LNG consumption and import belong to the GP because of the fast industrialization and urbanization development, so the oil and LNG import and consumption demand will increase fast; Then, the External Dependence (ED) is applied to describe the oil and LNG consumption dependence degree in China, the results show that import will remain high ED value, especially for the oil import (over 70%), which means the security of the energy supply chain still remains the central idea of Chin’s energy policies. Finally, the challenges and key issues of CPOLTC is analysed. Challenges are: domestic political struggles and institutional defects in Pakistan make the CPOLTC projects lacking of implementation, security along the corridor, influence and competition from external forces, impacts of western project culture, the comprehensive projects establishment ability in Pakistan, etc. The key issues are: Value Engineering (VE) researches for projects, Chinese element such as project construction, management, standards and specifications, assessment of the projects’ life cycle and so on.
期刊介绍:
At present, transport is one of the key branches playing a crucial role in the development of economy. Reliable and properly organized transport services are required for a professional performance of industry, construction and agriculture. The public mood and efficiency of work also largely depend on the valuable functions of a carefully chosen transport system. A steady increase in transportation is accompanied by growing demands for a higher quality of transport services and optimum efficiency of transport performance. Currently, joint efforts taken by the transport experts and governing institutions of the country are required to develop and enhance the performance of the national transport system conducting theoretical and empirical research.
TRANSPORT is an international peer-reviewed journal covering main aspects of transport and providing a source of information for the engineer and the applied scientist.
The journal TRANSPORT publishes articles in the fields of:
transport policy;
fundamentals of the transport system;
technology for carrying passengers and freight using road, railway, inland waterways, sea and air transport;
technology for multimodal transportation and logistics;
loading technology;
roads, railways;
airports, ports, transport terminals;
traffic safety and environment protection;
design, manufacture and exploitation of motor vehicles;
pipeline transport;
transport energetics;
fuels, lubricants and maintenance materials;
teamwork of customs and transport;
transport information technologies;
transport economics and management;
transport standards;
transport educology and history, etc.