基于专家判断法的最优块置换

IF 1.7 4区工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part O-Journal of Risk and Reliability Pub Date : 2023-03-15 DOI:10.1177/1748006x231159703

Somayyeh Shahraki Dehsoukhteh, M. Razmkhah, B. Castanier

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引用次数: 0

摘要

应用不确定性理论是研究系统可靠性的一个很好的方法，当合适的数据频率很少时。在此理论基础上，假设系统寿命服从幂律过程，考虑了以最小修理替换块体的策略。根据影响认知不确定性的证据理论对未知参数进行估计。Dempster-Shafer和Yager规则适用于汇总两个或两个以上专家的判断和心理估计。在确定未知参数后，利用长期成本准则推导出最优更换时间的判断区间。

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Optimal block replacement based on expert judgement method

Applying the theory of uncertainty is a good approach to study the reliability of a system when there is a little frequency of suitable data. Based on this theory, the policy of block replacement with minimal repair is considered assuming the system lifetime follows a power law process. The unknown parameters are estimated according to evidence theory that affects the epistemic uncertainty. The Dempster-Shafer as well as Yager rules are applied to aggregate the judgements and mental estimates of two or more experts. After determining the unknown parameters, a judgement interval is derived for the optimal replacement time using the long-run cost criterion.

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来源期刊

Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers Part O-Journal of Risk and Reliability ENGINEERING, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-ENGINEERING, INDUSTRIAL

CiteScore

4.50

自引率

19.00%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： The Journal of Risk and Reliability is for researchers and practitioners who are involved in the field of risk analysis and reliability engineering. The remit of the Journal covers concepts, theories, principles, approaches, methods and models for the proper understanding, assessment, characterisation and management of the risk and reliability of engineering systems. The journal welcomes papers which are based on mathematical and probabilistic analysis, simulation and/or optimisation, as well as works highlighting conceptual and managerial issues. Papers that provide perspectives on current practices and methods, and how to improve these, are also welcome