关于经济和社会可持续性问题的一些思考

Giovanni Antonio Cossiga
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摘要

根据与自然关系的良好规则,要实施和分析可持续性,必须配备一个理论方案,能够帮助理解这种关系的动态以及提供的机会,以改善经济系统的发展。从本质上讲,它是关于承认,就像物理学一样,经济也受制于一些一般和抽象的规律。这就是核心通货膨胀值的情况,中央银行将其定义为接近2%。因此,如果经济沿着这个值所指示的轨道运行,我们就可以确认增长是有规律的。这个核心通货膨胀值是隐式定义的,没有明确的规范。因此,我们可以承认它是一个理想的值,就像伟大的宇宙常数一样,它反映了一个根据自然相容规则发展的经济系统。根据这一观点,接近2%的核心通胀率本质上是一个乌托邦,因为只有在全球经济增长完全按照我们周围的自然规律运行的情况下才能实现。因此,即使我们可以实地验证接近2%的基础值的实现,实际上我们也不是在最好的条件下,特别是在全球经济遭受通货紧缩的情况下。通货紧缩,即价格下跌的趋势,是大自然和经济系统发出的复杂信息的一部分,表明经济表现不佳,已经变得不稳定。通货膨胀和通货紧缩都是对经济发展进程没有贡献的信息,但它们是与日常活动中经济周期的出现并行产生和发展的。总而言之,这是一种有责任的机制,通过对系统施加暂停,来减少系统的不稳定性,并促进回归自然发展条件。一种基于经济形势的修正系统,它通过经济增长和发展的方式明显地区分了稳定性,这取决于微分的线性和恒定的倾斜。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Some Considerations on the Issue of Economic and Social Sustainability
To be implemented and analyzed, according to the good rules of relationship with nature, sustainability must be equipped with a theoretical scheme able of helping to understand the dynamics of this relationship together with the opportunities offered to improve the development of the economic system. Essentially, it’s about acknowledging that, just like physics, also the economy is subject to some general and abstract laws. This is the case of the core inflation value, defined by Central Banks as a value close to 2%. So, if the economy moves along the track indicated by this value, we have confirmation that growth is regularly developing. This core inflation value is implicitly defined without a clear specification. We can therefore admit that it’s an ideal value like the great universal constants, which reports about an economic system that develops according to the rules of natural compatibility. According to this point of view, the core inflation close to 2% is essentially a utopia, because it can only be achieved if the global economic growth moves in full accordance with the nature around us. It follows that even if we can verify on field the realization of a base value close to 2%, actually we are not in the best conditions, especially if the global economy is suffering from deflation as today. The deflation, that is the tendency of prices to fall, is part of the complex messages sent by the nature and economic systems to signal that the economy is not doing well and has become unstable. Both inflation and deflation are messages that never contribute to the economic development course, but they are born and evolving in parallel with the appearance of the economic cycle in daily activity. In summary, a mechanism that has the responsibility, by imposing pauses on the system, to reduce the instability of the systems and to facilitate the return to the natural development condition. A correction system based on the economic conjuncture that obviously distinguishes the stability by the way that the economy grows and develops in a linear and constant inclination depending on differentials.
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