地理人口过程的内部因素(以乌克兰地区的生育率为例)

K. Sehida, Hanna Karaichentseva
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摘要

乌克兰人口问题的紧迫性正在增加,这助长了人口危机的恶化。将国家人口视为一个单一的地理人口系统,了解出生率因特定条件和因素而产生的区域分化程度,确定地理人口系统内部自组织因素的特征,其中包括地理人口过程之一——出生率。出生率变化的内部因素包括结构和年龄相关的出生率。本文在分析官方统计数据的基础上,建立了乌克兰出生率动态的时间特征,确定了最小值(1999-2002年、2018-2020年)和最大值(2011-2012年)的时期,以确定内部因素对整体指标变化的程度。采用人口系数标准化方法,确定了乌克兰各地区人口结构和年龄、出生强度对出生率变化的影响程度。在研究期间,年龄结构的变化和特定年龄生育率的变化对生育率的变化产生了重大影响,但这些因素对研究区域的影响程度不同。考虑到内部因素对出生率变化的影响,我们注意到2002-2012年出生率的增长主要是特定年龄出生率变化的结果,包括中老年生育群体的增加(+ 40%);2012-2018年出生率下降——人口年龄结构的变化,特别是较年轻的育龄群体人口减少(-11.5%)。对整个时期内部因素影响的评估表明,人口结构发生了消极变化,中老年妇女群体的生育行为有所恢复。在统计分析的帮助下,确定了在乌克兰各地区范围内决定出生率的每个内部因素的影响特点,概述了乌克兰各地区出生率的揭示结构和动态特征。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Internal factors of the geodemographic process (on the example of fertility in the regions of Ukraine)
The urgency of demographic problems in Ukraine is growing, which contributes to the aggravation of the demographic crisis. Considering the population of the state as a single geodemographic system, understanding the degree of regional differentiation of the birth rate due to specific conditions and factors, determine the characteristics of the internal factors of self-organization of the geodemographic system, including one of the geodemographic processes - birth rate. Among the internal factors of change in the birth rate is the structural and age-related birth rate. The article, based on the analysis of official statistics, establishes the temporal features of the dynamics of the birth rate in Ukraine, identifies the periods of minimum (1999-2002, 2018-2020) and maximum values (2011-2012) to determine the degree of internal factors to change the overall indicator. Using the method of standardization of demographic coefficients, the degree of influence of population structure and age, intensity of births on the change in the birth rate in terms of regions of Ukraine was determined. During the study period there was a change in the age structure and change in age-specific fertility rates, which led to a significant impact on the change in fertility, but the degree of influence of each of these factors for the studied regions is different. Considering the influence of internal factors on the change in the birth rate, we note that the increase in the birth rate in 2002-2012 is primarily the result of changes in the age-specific birth rate, including an increase in middle and older fertile groups (+ 40%); decrease in the birth rate in 2012-2018 - changes in the age structure of the population, in particular decrease in the population in the younger groups of fertile age (-11.5%). The assessment of the influence of internal factors for the whole period shows negative changes in the population structure and the revival of reproductive behavior in middle and older age groups of women. With the help of statistical analysis the place of peculiarities of influence of each of the internal factors determining the birth rate in the context of the regions of Ukraine is determined, the revealed structural and dynamic features of the birth rate in the regions of Ukraine are outlined.
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