利率目标制;遏制巴基斯坦物价不稳定的出路

H. Sherazi, H. Rehman, A. Shahid, Laila Khalid Laila Khalid
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为了实现可持续的经济增长,稳定物价被认为是关键的手段。巴基斯坦央行正考虑将利率目标化作为控制巴基斯坦物价不稳定的最合适策略。本研究将对我国的利率目标制进行分析。实证研究了利率目标制对通货膨胀的长期和短期影响。本研究的估计结果表明了利率目标制对国家的重要性。通货膨胀率被视为因变量。影响通货膨胀的主要变量是利率。本研究的控制变量为实际GDP增长。使用的是1980-2019年的年度数据。采用自回归分布滞后模型和对因果关系方法来评估变量间因果关系的性质。研究结果表明,利率是实现经济中价格波动较小目标的最佳工具。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Interest Rate Targeting; A Way Out to Curb Price Instability in Pakistan
To attain sustainable economic growth stability in prices is considered as the key instrument. The SBP is considering interest rate targeting as most suitable strategy to control price instability in Pakistan. Present research will make analysis of interest rate targeting in the country. The study empirically investigates long and short run impact of interest rate targeting on inflation. Estimated outcomes of present research indicate the significance of interest rate targeting for the country. Inflation rate is considered as dependent variable. Main proposed variable to influence inflation is interest rate. The controlled variable of present research is real GDP growth. Annual data covering the period from 1980-2019 has been used. The techniques of Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model and pair wise causality approach to assess the nature of causation among variables have been used. The results of the study propose that interest rate is best instrument to achieve target of less volatile prices in economy.
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