Deterring Biological Warfare in the Indo-Pacific

The COVID-19 pandemic exposed vulnerabilities to threats posed by human pathogens in societies around the world, including in the United States and US partners in the Indo-Pacific region. Aiming to bring the pandemic to an end, the members of the Quad, Australia, India, Japan, and the United States, vowed to increase cooperation on COVID-19 vaccine access and bolster health security in the region. The Biden administration also emphasized reducing the risk of future biological catastrophes in its March 2021 Interim National Security Strategic Guidance. Considering this renewed emphasis on health security, this paper will examine how deterrence concepts can be applied to reduce the risk of biological warfare to the United States and partner countries in the Indo-Pacific. As part of this broader question, this paper will analyze whether new strategic coalitions, namely the Quad, can use deterrence collectively to strengthen health security, and it will focus on deterring potential biological warfare threats posed by two state actors: China and North Korea. This paper will review existing literature on deterring biological warfare, current strategic thinking on health security and deterring biological warfare, and then project that thinking to the emerging biological warfare threat environment.