解决效益-成本分析中的基本不确定性:深海海底采矿的案例

IF 2 4区 经济学 Q2 ECONOMICS
K. Krutilla, D. Good, Michael T. Toman, Tijen Arin
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引用次数: 8

摘要

在海底深处发现了贱金属、贵金属和稀土元素的矿藏,这些资源的商业开发在经历了多年的停滞之后似乎即将开始。如果一切顺利,海底资源的开发可能对社会有益,但该行业面临着艰巨的挑战和不确定性。新出现的规章和合同机制是管理这些不确定性的主要手段。本文建议采用一种补充办法:对拟议的海底采矿合同进行事前效益-成本分析,其中包括基本不确定性评价。我们认为,这种事前评估将改善决策的信息状态,降低海底采矿开始后不遵守法规或代价高昂的合同纠纷的风险。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Addressing Fundamental Uncertainty in Benefit–Cost Analysis: The Case of Deep Seabed Mining
Abstract Mineral deposits of base metals, precious metals, and rare earth elements have been discovered on deep seabeds, and the commercial exploitation of these resources seems poised to begin after faltering for many years. The development of seabed resources could be socially beneficial if all goes well, but the industry faces daunting challenges and uncertainties. Emerging regulations and contracting mechanisms are the principal means for managing these uncertainties. This article recommends a complementary approach: the use of ex ante benefit–cost analysis of proposed seabed mining contracts that incorporates a fundamental uncertainty evaluation. We argue that such an ex ante evaluation will improve the state of information for the decision-making, reducing the risk of regulatory noncompliance or costly contract disputes after seabed mining begins.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
2.90%
发文量
22
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