孟加拉国COVID-19传播的变化点模型

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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景:2019冠状病毒病大流行被认为是2020年孟加拉国人类健康的重大威胁。如果没有有效的药物和疫苗,很难控制COVID-19的传播。因此,不断确定和监测COVID-19大流行的发展轨迹对于评估为遏制这一大流行而采取的行动并做出进一步决定非常重要。方法和材料:在此背景下,本研究试图找出孟加拉国每日报告的COVID-19确诊病例的趋势。为进行分析,从2020年3月10日至8月30日,从孟加拉国世界测量仪网站获取了174天的每日数据。为了分析趋势并确定趋势中的重大变化,使用了联结点回归分析。结果:孟加拉国的病例数以每天4.98%的速度增长,然而,从6月11日至8月30日(即81天),增长率为负意味着我们观察到COVID-19病例每天以- 0.6%的速度下降。结论:有证据表明,封锁的影响减缓了孟加拉国COVID-19每日病例的传播。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Change Point Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission in Bangladesh
Background: COVID-19 pandemic is recognized as a significant threat to human health in 2020 in Bangladesh. Without emergence of effective medicine and vaccine it is very difficult to control the transmission of the COVID-19. Thus, identifying and monitoring the trajectory in the COVID-19 pandemic continuously is very important to assess the action taken to contain this pandemic and to have a further decision. Methods and Material: In this context, this study tries to find out the trend of daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Bangladesh. The 174 days’ daily data have been taken from the website of worldometer Bangladesh from 10 March to 30 August, 2020 for the analysis. To analyze the trends and to identify significant changes in trends joinpoint regression analysis has been used. Results: The number of cases increased by the rate of 4.98 percent per day in Bangladesh, however, from 11th June to 30th August i.e. for 81 days, the growth rate is found negative means we observed a decline in the COVID-19 cases per day with the rate of -0.6 percent. Conclusions: Evidence suggests that there is an impact of lockdown that slow down the spread of COVID-19 daily cases in Bangladesh.
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