Modeling the Interaction of the Regions of Russia and the Republic of Belarus in the Sphere of the Processing Industry

In connection with the processes of the formation of the Union State of Russia and Belarus, the relevance of conducting a study of economic, infrastructural and institutional factors affecting the change in the level of economic interaction between the regions of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus is increasing. The aim of the work is to carry out spatial modeling of the possible interaction of the regions of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus in the manufacturing industry and to assess the factors affecting this interaction. The main hypothesis of the study is the assumption that the elements of the matrix of interregional interactions are proxy variables that characterize the degree of this interaction. At the first stage, the spatial distribution of the volume of output in the manufacturing sector of the regions of the two countries is investigated in order to assess possibilities of interaction between the regions in this sector. In modeling, the Republic of Belarus is considered as a separate region within the Union State. Calculations of the global and local Moran's indices have been carried out and possible spatial autocorrelations have been determined, both between the regions of the Russian Federation and between the regions of these two countries. In this study, economic indicators calculated on the basis of inverse values of the difference in interregional gross regional products were selected as elements of the weight matrix. At the second stage, the influence of economic, infrastructural and institutional factors on the indicator characterizing the degree of possible interaction of the regions of the two countries in the manufacturing industry was studied. Using quantile regression, the influence of economic, infrastructural and institutional factors on this investigated indicator was studied. The use of this approach makes it possible to substantiate the priority directions of economic development of the territories within the framework of the Union State and, in particular, to search for centers of attraction of resources and spheres of their influence on the territory. The results of the work can be used in preparation of strategies, programs and schemes for the placement and development of industries, taking into account the potential of a new level of integration of the economies of Russia and Belarus.