通货膨胀或通货紧缩影响下的经济可持续性理论

Giovanni Antonio Cossiga
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摘要

这项工作旨在研究当它放弃了对自然影响最小的恒定和可控增长的规则路径时,影响发展路径的麻烦和异常问题。因为任何选择都是徒劳的;事实上,另一种选择是陷入所谓的次世界,在这个次世界中,持续的发展路线陷入了危机周期,似乎被通货膨胀或通货紧缩所占据。然而,“黑暗中总有一线光明”……事实上,这些子世界的异常绝不是攻击性的工具,而是一种治疗方法,如果我们不尴尬地反对它们的表现。因此,从通货膨胀和通货紧缩开始,对这些异常现象的任何抵制,都可能是它们在经济情景中长期存在所造成的日益严重的不安的原因。因此,不接受为离开次级世界而支付的罚款是上世纪60年代和70年代困扰世界的20年通货膨胀的原因。但更糟糕的是,恶性通货膨胀已经占据了经济场景,然后试图通过异常增加货币流通来对抗通货膨胀。通货膨胀和通货紧缩是需要牺牲(恢复期)才能从货币问题中解脱出来的护理疗法。即使是通缩——我们必须将其视为一种危险的疾病——如果被忽视,也无法通过基于超凯恩斯主义行动和增加流动性的常规大熔炉来解决。这不仅不是面对问题的正确方式,而且我们还严重地冒着重蹈日本覆辙的风险,日本已经与通货紧缩作了20年的斗争,却没有取得成功。让我们回到对自然破坏最小的持续增长的道路上的治疗方法,是简单地遵循要求衰退转向的自然设置,即使很难,真正开始解决方案。因为通货紧缩和通货膨胀都是自然的信号,它们警告社会,经济形势正在恶化,需要尽快改变方向,即使经历严重的衰退。社区是自然界在地球上生命生存问题上的参照物,一个好的政府应该倾听社区的声音,而不是寻找替代和错误的逃生路线。社会可能会接受经济衰退,因为经济危机的自然信号提前被认为是必要的,因此唯一可能的决定是承担复苏所需的成本。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Theory of Economic Sustainability in a Scenario Influenced by Inflation or Deflation
This work aims to examine the issue of troubles and anomalies that affect the development path when it has abandoned the regular path of a constant and contained growth with minimal impact on nature. Because any alternative is indeed fruitless; the alternative, in fact, is the fall into the so-called sub-world, in which the constant line of development is caught in the conjuncture cycle and appears taken by inflation or deflation. Nevertheless, ‘every cloud has a silver lining’... Indeed, these anomalies of the sub-world are by no means offensive instruments but rather a kind of cure, if we do not awkwardly oppose their manifestation. Thus, any resistance to these anomalies, starting from inflation and deflation, may then be responsible for the growing malaise produced by their permanence within the economic scenario. Therefore, not accepting the penalties to be paid in order to leave the sub-world was the cause of the twenty-year inflation that afflicted the world during the 60s and 70s of the last century. But worse than that, the hyperinflation has occupied the economic scenario and then attempts were made to fight inflation with an abnormal increase of money circulation. Inflation and deflation are care treatments requiring a sacrifice (convalescence) to be released from monetary malaise. Even deflation, which we must consider a dangerous disease, if neglected cannot be solved through the usual melting pot based on hyper-Keynesian actions and increased liquidity. Not only this isn’t the right way to face the problem, but we seriously risk the syndrome that affected Japan, which has been fighting deflation for twenty years without success. The cure that can put us back on the path of constant growth with minimal damage to nature, is instead to simply follow the natural settings that ask for a recessionary turn, even hard, to really start the solution. Because both deflation and inflation are natural messages that warn the community that things in the economy are going badly and a direction change is needed soon, even going through a severe recession. The community is the referent of natural world on the issue of life survival on the planet and a good government should listen to its community, without looking for alternative and wrong escape routes. The community may accept the recession, because the natural message of conjuncture is perceived in advance as necessary and therefore the only possible decision is to bear the costs required by recovery.
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