贸易开放与增长:基于网络的视角

Georg Duernecker, Moritz Meyer, F. Vega-Redondo
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引用次数: 2

摘要

在本文中,我们提出了一种研究国际贸易的新方法,该方法可以衡量国家开放程度,这与已有文献提出的各种替代方法截然不同。与这些相比,我们的衡量方法不使用总贸易强度、贸易政策或贸易限制的指标,而是依赖于对贸易影响的广泛系统观点。更具体地说,它超越了直接的贸易联系,并通过其在世界贸易网络中的第二、第三和所有其他高阶联系的完整架构来衡量一个国家在世界经济中的一体化水平。我们将我们的方法应用于从1962年到2016年的204个国家的样本,并对模型选择进行贝叶斯分析,以确定最重要的增长相关因素。分析发现,我们的一体化措施与一个国家的增长率之间存在相当大且显著的正相关关系,而上述传统的外向取向措施只是次要的,统计上不显著。我们进行了几次敏感性检查,并得出结论,我们的基线结果对于不同的数据集或集成度量的可选变体都非常稳健。总的来说,这表明以网络为基础的方法来衡量国家开放程度可能为经济增长提供一个有价值的视角。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Trade Openness and Growth: A Network-Based Approach
In this paper, we propose a novel approach to the study of international trade that leads to a measure of country openness that is quite different from the various alternatives proposed by the received literature. In contrast to these, our measure does not use indicators of aggregate trade intensity, trade policy, or trade restrictiveness but relies on a broad systemic viewpoint on the effects of trade. More specifically, it goes beyond direct trade connections and measures a country’s level of integration in the world economy through the full architecture of its second, third, and all other higher-order connections in the world trade network. We apply our methodology to a sample of 204 countries spanning the period from 1962 to 2016 and perform a Bayesian analysis of model selection to identify the most important correlates of growth. The analysis finds that there is a sizable and significant positive relationship between our integration measure and a country’s rate of growth, while that of the aforementioned traditional measures of outward orientation is only minor and statistically insignificant. We perform several sensitivity checks and conclude that our baseline findings are very robust to either different data sets or alternative variations of the integration measure. Overall, this suggests that a network-based approach to measuring country openness may provide a valuable perspective on economic growth.
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