Modeling of the Social Role of the Guardianship Authorities to Support Management Decision-Making

The article considers various aspects of guardianship. As foster families often face psychological and educational problems when bringing up foster children and need appropriate assistance, proper research appears to be relevant. The authors analyzed the number of orphaned children using the data of the annual abstract of statistics of the Russian Federation. The forecast of a change in the number of orphaned children in the Russian Federation in general and in Siberian Federal District in particular is given. Although there is positive dynamics of finding families for orphaned children, their number still tends to be growing according to both the pessimistic and the optimistic forecast. The objective of this article is to build a cognitive model and to carry out a simulation experiment to reveal the most significant influencing factors.