地表温度对卡里巴湖湖沼沼种群的影响

IF 0.2 Q4 ECOLOGY
F. K. Mutasa, Brian Jones, I. Tendaupenyu, T. Nhiwatiwa, Mzime R. Ndebele-Murisa
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引用次数: 0

摘要

全球变暖是一个严重的世界问题,据报道,地球温度多年来一直在上升;水生生态系统也不例外。但是,这一现象对水生生态系统的影响尚不清楚。本研究旨在了解地表温度对卡里巴湖Limnothrissa miodon种群密度的影响。建立了含营养物、浮游植物、浮游动物和vittatus的Limnothrissa miodon种群动态的数学模型。采用余弦函数对湖泊地表水温进行建模,并通过数据拟合估计参数。通过数值模拟来确定非自治模型的稳定性。数值模拟结果表明,非自治模型在变初始条件下具有稳定的周期轨道,因此具有不稳定性。采用数值方法研究了地表水温度对泥鳅生长的影响。拟合湖表层水温数据的模型结果表明,浮游植物生长的最佳温度从25°C上升到34°C,对应于蓝藻类对绿藻类的优势,导致Limnothrissa miodon种群密度下降。数值结果表明,当浮游植物生长的最适温度为30℃时,Limnothrissa miodon的种群密度下降。数值模拟结果表明,湖泊变暖可能导致卡里巴湖Limnothrissa miodon种群密度下降。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Surface Temperature Influences the Population of Limnothrissa miodon in Lake Kariba
Global warming is a serious world problem where earth’s temperature has been reported to increase over the years; the aquatic ecosystems are also not the exceptions. But, the effects of this phenomenon on the aquatic ecosystems are not well understood. This study aims to understand the influence of surface temperature on the population density of Limnothrissa miodon in Lake Kariba. We constructed a mathematical model on the population dynamics of Limnothrissa miodon with nutrients, phytoplankton, zooplankton, and Hydrocynus vittatus. Lake surface water temperature was modelled by a cosine function, and the parameters were estimated from data fitting. Numerical simulations were used to determine the stability of the nonautonomous model. Numerical simulation results of the nonautonomous model showed a stable periodic orbit for varying initial conditions, and therefore, instability. Numerical techniques were used to investigate the influence of surface water temperature on Limnothrissa miodon. Results from the model with fitted lake surface water temperature data showed that a shift in the optimal temperature for phytoplankton growth from 25 ° C to 34 ° C, corresponding to dominance of Cyanophyceae over Chlorophyceae, resulted in a decline in the population density of Limnothrissa miodon. Numerical results showed that the population density of Limnothrissa miodon declines after an optimum temperature of 30 ° C for phytoplankton growth. Numerical simulation results suggested that warming of the lake may lead to a decline in Limnothrissa miodon population density in Lake Kariba.
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来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
15
期刊介绍: The main aim of the International Journal of Ecology & Development (IJED) is to publish refereed, well-written original research articles, and studies that describe the latest research and developments in ecology and development. It also covers the many potential applications and connections to other areas of Ecological Science, economics and technology such as the use and development of mathematics/statistics in ecology or use and development of economics for ecology & development or inter-disciplinary nature of applications for Ecology & Development. International Journal of Ecology and Development is published three issues in a year in Winter, Summer and Fall.
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